Forecasting of suicides rate using time series analysis

This article tests the possibility of forecasting of suicides rate in Russia using the analysis of time series from 1956 to 2005. The results from present study support the hypothesis that a change in the affordability of alcohol was the key determinant of dramatic fluctuations in the suicides rate in Russia during the last decades. Most visible effect of measures on restriction of alcohol’s availability was during antialcohol campaign 1985-1988 and following the adoption of new antialcohol initiatives in 2005. This study highlighted the limitations associated with forecasting of suicides using extrapolation of time series. Adoption of new antialcohol initiatives in 2005 appeared as an intervention witch effected the trends in suicide mortality. This suggests that different kinds of social interventions hamper reliable forecasting of suicide rate.