Forecasting of the gross grain harvest in the Novosibirsk region with regard to technological development

This study attempts to predict the volume of crop production not only on the basis of available factors of production, but also taking into account scientific and technological progress. The latter in this case is expressed in terms of crop yields, labor productivity and energy supply. The forecast model is presented as a power function, the parameters of which reflect the level of technologies used. As the correlation analysis showed, productivity and energy supply have a strong relationship, so the indicator of labor productivity was excluded from the model. As a result of the study, the estimated value of gross grain harvest in agricultural organizations of the Novosibirsk region by 2030, taking into account scientific and technological progress.