Prognostic mapping of forest ecosystems (a landscape-ecological approach)

Methods of fine- and intermediate-scale mapping of the prognostic state of forest ecosystems under global climate changes are considered. Projected maps of functional and structural changes in forest stands are expressed as calculated grids visualized in GIS programs. Our methods of calculating projected maps differ from other methods of data extrapolation and interpolation by the way how to use as predictors the grids of: 1 – catenae, 2 – values ​​of the property under consideration for the base period, 3 – prognostic values ​​of hydrothermal terrain features, 4 – stability indices of ecosystems. It is shown that the topography may modify projected forest patterns calculated using climate changes only. The approaches are illustrated using examples of prognostic models for forest ecosystems of Oksko-Terrasny Reserve and Northern Caucasus.