The forecast scenario for the world oil market

Scenarios of forecasts on oil prices and the factors determining their dynamics in the future which can be used for the purposes of investment planning and prerequisites at formation of Energy strategy and General schemes of development of the world oil industry are defined. The results of the study showed that it is necessary to lay the price scenarios in the strategic documents and the state policy in the field of fuel and energy complex. The average scenario can be used as a basis for the formation of investment programs and forecasts for key strategic industry documents. At the same time, the optimistic scenario can be used as a scenario for the realization of potential – for example, for large-scale development of the Arctic shelf. A pessimistic scenario – for stress analysis of individual investment projects. Tax initiatives should also be tested against a fairly wide range of oil price changes. In this case, business will not need to spend money on expensive asset acquisitions at the peak of the price cycle or cut investments in already implemented projects at the next price reduction. Therefore, if today the formation of the Energy strategy and the General scheme of development of the industry does not provide for sufficiently broad scenarios of oil prices, these documents will have to be radically rewritten more often than once in 3 years.