The manufacturing sector of the economy of northwest Russia: problems of adaptation and prospects of functioning under sanctions

The manufacturing sector plays a key role for the economy of the Northwestern Federal District. As sanctions from Western countries intensify, access for businesses in the macro-region to the machinery and technology they need to function properly, as well as to established sales markets, could seriously deteriorate. With free access to statistical information, the questionnaire surveys of enterprise managers served as a supplement and a different view of the state of the production sector, but due to the limitation on the publication of detailed statistical data they proved to be the main method of obtaining many important information about the state of the economy. In 2022, the coverage of the survey conducted by Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences is expanded from the Vologda Oblast to the NWFD. The questionnaire was updated with new questions on the state of the manufacturing sector in the current geopolitical situation, the problems encountered and the prospects for its development. The purpose of the study was to analyze the state of the manufacturing sector in Northwest Russia in 2021, to determine the prospects for its development in view of the changing geopolitical conditions, and to compare the results with the results of the survey of industrial enterprises in Russia in general. The information basis of the work was the data of questionnaire surveys of Vologda Research Center of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, carried out in April - June 2022, as well as the works of Russian and foreign scientists. Signs of recovery in the NWFD's manufacturing sector in 2021 have been identified - most CEOs note that profi ts, solvent demand, employee wages, etc., have increased during this period. In the NWFD, the negative effects of increased Western sanctions in the first half of2022 were more signifi cant than in the whole country: many respondents saw the need to revise logistics routes, find new suppliers and consumers of products, and reorient towards the internal market. The scientifi c signifi cance of this study lies in the identifi cation of trends and tendencies in the development of the manufacturing sector under fundamentally new conditions, as well as in the identifi cation of limitations to its development. The results obtained can be considered as an important informational supplement for analytical and forecasting studies, and also for the identifi cation and adjustment of support measures for industrial enterprises under changing economic and political conditions.