Spatial-autoregressive analysis of propensity to tuberculosis in the Russian Federation

The main objective of the study is to identify the dependence of incidence of tuberculosis among the population in a particular region on the values of the corresponding parameter in neighboring regions. It is noted that if the surrounding people are carriers of an open form of tuberculosis, then there should be a spatial relationship with the increase in the incidence in adjacent territories. On the other hand, the affected persons are restricted in their movements, which should largely neutralize the processes of spreading the disease between neighboring regions. The study also examined the impact of various socio-economic factors on the epidemiological situation in the region. Econometric modeling allowed us to conclude that there is a spatial autoregression of the parameter of propensity to tuberculosis in the Russian Federation. The models constructed in this work demonstrate the influence of socio-economic factors on the spread of the disease, and also make it possible to compare the effectiveness of functioning of the healthcare system in different regions of the Russian Federation on the basis of detected effects.