Prediction of grass fires emergence and spread on the example of Jewish autonomous region

The purpose of this study is to develop a database of the regional system of short-term forecast of meteorological fire danger, taking into account the pyrological data of the quarterly network of flammable objects, hydro-meteorological stations and vegetation fires over a long period. To carry out the forecast, the author proposes a deterministic-probabilistic model of vegetation fires forecast, the database system and its verification on the example of the fire season 2016 in the territory of the Russian Far East Federal subjects.