Development of a model of information system for forecasting the demand for educational programs at universities among applicants

In recent years, the sphere of higher education has undergone significant changes, for example, the expansion of opportunities for applicants such as remote submission of documents, the opportunity to participate in a competition in a large number of educational programs (including at different universities), digitalization of the process of admission to universities. Often, this causes the appearance of unclaimed places in universities. In accordance with the changing conditions of the market of educational services, there is also a need to change the development strategies of universities. An effective system for attracting and keeping applicants has become a necessary condition for the competitiveness of the university. At the same time, insufficient attention has been paid to the issues of forecasting the number of applicants for various educational programs. It seems that the results of forecasting can potentially increase the financial stability of the university. The purpose of this article is to develop a model of an information system that works according to an algorithm and enables to predict the demand for university educational programs among applicants using the example of the Ural Federal University. The structure of the model and set of statistical and dynamic parameters that potentially affect the forecast results are proposed. The set of the Unified State Examination results is considered as the main parameter.