Resources and risks of labor immigration: imperatives of formation and methodology of assessments

The paper examines the imperatives and dialectics of labor immigration as a resource for economic growth, on the one hand, and a source of risks in the economic and social sphere, on the other. The history and modern experience of the expansion of mass migration to developed countries state the growing negative consequences that have features in modern Russia (hypertrophied demand for cheap labor, the growth of non-labor immigration, etc.). In the context of the theory of a dual labor market, an assessment of the autonomy of its foreign segment, as well as the growth of competitive crossings of migrants and national personnel, is given. The analysis of Russia's migration attractiveness in the post-Soviet space is carried out in the format of neoclassical theory. The proposed methodology for assessing systemic factors and the calculations carried out confirm the excessive resources and risks of mass migration in the regional aspect, most industries operating on the domestic market, In Russia as a whole, the number of employed migrants from the CIS countries is estimated at 8.8 million people, with the number of legally employed 3.8 million people. The analysis of variable factors allowed us to state the structural restructuring of the national labor market. with the movement of local personnel in the defense industry and the shortage of qualified personnel, it is not possible to replace them with migrants from poor CIS countries, most of which do not have a close connection with the labor market. An important conclusion has been made about the necessary adjustments to migration policy, taking into account the principles of normative attraction of labor immigration and selective naturalization of new citizens.