Backcasting of the economic development of valley complexes of rivers discharging into lake Baikal (case study of Goloustnaya river's basin)

The article considers modern ecological conditions for formation of valley complexes on the example of the territory of Goloustnaya river’s basin. Forestry and agricultural production are dominant kinds of economic activities of the local population. We have noted fluctuating changes in their intensity. Economic development of valley geosystems proceeded at a slow pace during the second half of the 17th century and to the first half of the 20th century due to the small population of the territory. Agricultural area enlarged and the industrial development of forest resources increased since the middle of 20th century till the end of 1980s. The decline in the activity of economic measures from the end of the past century is associated with the state reorganization of national economy and with the creation of specially protected natural areas within the studied site. Analysis of the current environmental and economic situation shows that, despite the low activity of production activities, valley complexes of the Goloustnaya river are subject to adverse effects of anthropogenic influence, first of all active recreational development of the coastal areas of Lake Baikal.