Arctic settlement resilience: modeling experience

Modern challenges turn up the heat on scientific and practical interest in finding new approaches to solving the problems of the Arctic macro-region's resilience to rising shocks. In this regard, the article analyzes the resilience (viability) of socio-economic systems of the Arctic settlements of Yakutia over eight years of “Arctic” transformations (the period 2011-2019). To this end, a system of models was built to comprehensively assess, describe and identify the degree and properties of the Russian Arctic's resilience to economic shocks under the influence of various factors on the example of individual districts of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Statistical methods were used to analyze the relationships between phenomena and processes. The study obtained very unexpected results that allow us to draw ambiguous conclusions at this stage of modeling. The study found that the identified group of key influences did not have a significant impact on the population increment of the macro region. This raises the question: how effective is the ongoing “active” state policy and how effective are the measures of its impact? The results of calculations at this stage indicate the opposite: the policy of state non-interference and support for habitual habitat in the Arctic can contribute to increasing the resilience of Arctic settlements much more than the active activity of the state in this region. The conducted research can be useful in the formation of information and analytical solutions in the management process for authorities and businesses.