Fertility in the regions of the Northwestern federal district

The Northwestern Federal District is characterized by one of the lowest birth rates in the country (especially in the Leningrad Oblast and in the city of Saint Petersburg). After a significant decline of the total fertility rate, the birth rate in the Northwestern Federal District has increased since 2000. The dynamics of the total fertility rate for the first births is unstable, the total rate of second and third births has been steadily increasing. The most significant increase in total fertility rates for second and third births was recorded in 2007 and 2012, when federal and regional measures to help families with children were implemented. The calculations show the possibility of estimating fertility rates for real generations on the basis of population census data and annual age-duration fertility rates for the post-census period in all regions of the Northwestern Federal District except Saint Petersburg, the Leningrad Oblast and Nenets Autonomous Okrug. Among the women born in the early 1970s, the decrease in the average number of births has decelerated or stopped, and in the generations born in the 1970s this number even increased. This process may be considered as the result of the demographic policy. It will be possible to judge about the effectiveness of the policy when women of reproductive age complete the process of childbearing. The increase in fertility of real generations is reflected primarily in the increase in the share of women who gave birth to the second child (mostly in the Novgorod Oblast) and in the share of those who gave birth to the third child (mostly in the Pskov and Murmansk oblasts).