Russians in the Baltics - geo-demographic trends of the post-Soviet period and prospects for the first half of the 21st century

The article analyzes specifics of the quantitative and spatial dynamics of the Russian population of the Baltic States in the late 20th - early 21st century. There are identified the fluctuations in the rates of depopulation of Russian communities in each country of the region. The overall ratio of the natural, migration and assimilation components of the demographic decline of the Russians by countries and by separate decades of the post-Soviet period was recorded. While in the first half of the 1990s the main demographic losses of the Russian population in the Baltic countries were due to outmigration to Russia, in the second half of that decade the leading position was taken by natural decrease and change of identity by part of the mixed population. From the beginning of the 21st century the maximal losses of Russians in Latvia and Lithuania were connected with emigration to other EU countries, and in Estonia they were as before caused by natural decrease and assimilation of the offspring of mixed marriages. Analysis of the ethno-demographic and migration processes of the recent years has shown acceleration in the process of reduction of the Russian community in Lithuania and persistence of high rates of depopulation of Russians in Latvia. For the period of 1989-2017 the number of Russians in the Baltic countries almost halved (from 1.72 million to 0.96 million). Forecast of the quantitative dynamics of the Russian population shows a probable reduction in the number of Russians in Lithuania to 40-60 thousand people, in Latvia - to 250-280 thousand, in Estonia - to 240-270 thousand by 2050. The total number of Russians in the Baltic states by the middle of the 21st century can be reduced by another 35-45% (up to 530-610 thousand).Thus, the process of demographic decline of all Russian communities will continue: the fastest in Lithuania, accelerated in Latvia; slower, but still steady - in Estonia.