The Russian labor market: assessment of unemployment and potential labor force

For Russia, the problem of high unemployment lost its relevance several years ago, since the official level of registered unemployment in the country is at a fairly low level and continues to decline, being within 5%. At the same time, the employment rate, contrary to expectations, is also at an insufficiently high level. This is due to the dynamic development of self-employment as an alternative to traditional employment, as well as due to the fact that part of the population without employment does not officially register their status in the labor market. The study evaluates the dynamics and structure of unemployment and the potential labor force in Russia based on the analysis of data series for 2019-2023, identifies current trends and their causes. It was found that the surge in unemployment caused by the pandemic was leveled already in 2022-2023, when the number of unemployed in the labor market fell to less than 2.5 million people, and the unemployment rate was 3.2%. There has also been a decrease in the number and share of the part-time workforce. In the gender structure of the unemployed in the Russian labor market, men and women occupy almost equal shares, but in 2023 there were 1% more women - 1.2 million people. At the same time, in the last 3 years, the unemployment rate among the female population is slightly higher than among the male. In the age structure of the number of unemployed, the most numerous groups are those aged 20-39 years.