Agriculture of the Krasnoyarsk region under the COVID-19 pandemic factor influence: state, threats and security risks

In the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, the role of local and regional food systems, responsible for supplying food to local communities, is dramatically increasing. The aim of the study is to assess the impact of quarantine measures on agriculture in the Krasnoyarsk Region and to clarify the most pressing threats to development in the medium term. The research methodology involved a comparative analysis of statistical and empirical data on the dynamics of indicators of the development of agricultural industries in the period before the pandemic and for 2020. On average, before the COVID-19 pandemic in the Krasnoyarsk Region, products were produced at the level of 79-80 billion rubles, 40 % accounted to crop products. The Krasnoyarsk Region was fully self-sufficient in eggs (103 %), grain (137 %) and implemented the Doctrine indicators for milk (89 %). The most cost-effective is the production of pork, grain, milk, open field vegetables. At the end of 2020, there was a significant increase in the cost of manufactured products due to the following main factors: a record yield for grain and rapeseed, as well as an increase in the cost of all major types of livestock products. As a result the total revenue of agricultural organizations increased by 20.1 %, and the increase in profit before tax amounted to 53.4 %, the share of profitable organizations increased by 6.3 points - to 87.8 %. An important growth factor also became: favorable natural and climatic conditions prevailing in 2020; the previously created reserve in the material and technical base; positive price dynamics for export products; state industrial sectors support from the regional budget. Despite the fact that the agro-industrial complex of the Krasnoyarsk Region has relatively successfully endured the negative factors of the COVID-19 pandemic, six groups of threats have been identified in the external environment that can negatively affect the industry's performance in the medium term.