Socio-demographic security of the Russian regions: problems of diagnostics and prognostication

The article deals with the main problems of the development of the socio-demographic sphere in Russia at present and the prospects for the future. It proposes methods for diagnosing the socio-demographic security of territories, which are based on indicative analysis. It shows the present state and dynamics of the changes in the socio-demographic security in Federal districts and subjects of the Russian Federation over the period from 2000 to 2007, analyses the main relating problems. It proposes models for prognosing main demographic indicators, based on synergetic approach, and also formulates new approaches to prognostication of population number by imitation modelling. The proposed prognostication methods have been approved in Sverdlovsk region.