The state, trends and prospects for the domestic grain market development in the Krasnoyarsk region

The purpose of research is to clarify the trends and dynamics of the development of the regional grain market of the Krasnoyarsk Region, to identify the problems and conditions for maintaining the equilibrium dynamics of supply and demand. The tasks solved in the study were to assess the contribution of the Krasnoyarsk Region to the grain production of the Russian Federation, to determine the trends and dynamics of indicators for the development of the regional grain market, to clarify the conditions for the development of grain production and related market infrastructure in the medium term. According to the results of the studies, it was found that the Krasnoyarsk Region accounted for about 2 % of the total Russian grain production in 2021-2022. With an annual reduction in the area under grain crops (by 12 % over 5 years from 2017), an increase in production is ensured through an increase in the yield of grain crops. The volume of domestic production consumption of grain in the Krasnoyarsk Region for the period under review 2017-2021 decreased annually within 2-4 %, but at the same time the volume of grain processing increased (an increase of 21 % compared to 2017), which stabilized aggregate demand. The domestic grain market in the Krasnoyarsk Region is characterized by the following trends: an increase in supply from regional producers, the stability of the structure of domestic demand, the dependence of regional prices on external macroeconomic factors and world prices. The primary grain market in the region (from the producer) is low-concentrated according to the Herfindahl coefficient, and about 77 % of the market supply is formed by agricultural organizations. At the same time, the 10 largest regional grain producers account for 35 % of the market supply. In order to maintain the stability of grain production and balance in the market, according to the author, one should concentrate on a defensive strategy in the medium term. Firstly, it is necessary to reduce the import dependence of the region's grain industry by identifying "bottlenecks" in the logistics of grain producers, secondly, remove logistical barriers to expand grain exports, thirdly, through subsidy mechanisms and intervention purchases, to support domestic demand for grain by small and medium-sized producers, whose share in aggregate is about 65 % of the market supply.