Population ageing in the context of the demographic transition concept

The demographic situation in the developed world (including Russia) is characterized by low fertility rates, a large “gap” between number of births and number of deaths, as and rapid ageing of the population. All of these phenomena have been developed on the background of socio-economic transformations: improvement of the quality of life and education, urbanization, changes in the structure of production and reduction in social importance of agriculture, formation of consumer society, and wide employment of the female population. While demographic changes in the diversity of their manifestations can simultaneously be both a cause and a consequence of socio-economic transformation. It is the study of the regularities of interaction of these two critical factors of social development that is the main motive for the demographic transition theory development. This article discusses the background, development stages and basic postulates of the demographic transition theory. In addition to the “classical” theory, it considers the concept of the “second” and the “third” demographic transition. It determines the preconditions for population ageing, which consist in the transformation of the age structure at the fourth phase of the “transition”. Population ageing has a significant impact on socio-economic development of territories; however, this impact cannot always be measured unambiguously. The article shows that “natural” growth of economic and social activity of the population of retirement age is one of the consequences of population ageing (as part of the demographic transition). Thus, the increasing share of working pensioners can compensate certain threats associated with the increasing burden on the working population.