Statistical analysis and econometric modeling of road traffic accidents in the Rostov region from January 2015 to September 2022

The article examines data on the number of road traffic accidents in the Rostov Region from January 2015 to September 2022. Using statistical and analytical methods of interpretation (growth rate, rate of increase, and relative share of part as a whole), a fragmentary picture of the traffic situation in the Rostov region over the study period was obtained. By applying statistical methods, a series of initial data were analyzed dynamically, involving the calculation of absolute changes (both baseline relative to January 2015 data and chain-based), growth coefficients, and rates of increase, which clearly illustrated the changes in the number of road accidents in the Rostov region. With the help of econometric methods (namely, the alignment of the original series, modeling using multiplicative tools, as well as additional modeling, to refine the existing model, errors using ARIMA), the seasonality inherent in the summer time period was revealed. According to the modeled series, point and interval forecast values were made, which can fully assist in the adoption of the road transport policy of the region and the organization of preventive measures. Based on the results of the study, a comparative description of the data collected during the study period (January 2015 compared to September 2022) was given, conclusions were drawn about the key causes of accidents on the roads of the Rostov region.