Statistical analysis of the volume of debt on loans provided by the banking sector of the Russian Federation to organizations in the sphere of wholesale and retail trade

This article is devoted to the problem of assessing debt on loans in the sphere of wholesale and retail trade. The paper studies the dynamics of the volume of debt on loans provided by the banking sector of the Russian Federation to organizations in the field of wholesale and retail trade from 2011 to 2020.The process of registration and issuance of loans in the field of wholesale and retail trade is important not only for organizations, but also for the state in general, since it leads to an increase in production, GDP growth and, as a consequence, to an increase in the welfare of citizens, which is the most important task of the state. The article examines the structure of debt on loans provided in the sphere of wholesale and retail trade by federal districts of the country and types of currencies, reveals the main trend in the volume of debt on loans using analytical and mechanical equalization methods, and calculates the predicted value of the volume of debt on loans provided to organizations in in the sphere of wholesale and retail trade, as of January 1, 2026. The dependence of the volume of debt on loans provided by the banking sector of the Russian Federation in the sphere of wholesale and retail trade on the value of retail trade turnover has been identified and studied.