A Statistical Study of the Effectiveness of Grain Farming Development in the Region (Using the Republic Bashkortostan as an Example)

This article analyzes long-term trends in the gross grain harvest in the Republic Bashkortostan (RB), which, according to the authors, has a decisive impact on the overall economic efficiency of agriculture and, thus, determines the development of the agricultural economy. The authors are convinced that only by restoring the strategic planning and management system will it be possible to improve the sustainability of grain production in the region and the country as a whole. The goal of our study is to highlight the close relationship between the economic efficiency of agricultural business and the availability and level of soil and climatic potential in individual agricultural zones (using the Republic Bashkortostan as an example) in order to justify the need for state price regulation, without which agricultural enterprises in areas with relatively low bioclimatic potential are unable to withstand fierce market competition, both domestic and foreign. The objectives of this study are to analyze long-term fluctuations in the gross grain harvest in the Republic Bashkortostan, dividing it into two periods – before and after the economy’s transformation to a market economy, from 1991 to the present – to determine the consequences of the state’s abandonment of directive management of agriculture, the primary sector ensuring the country’s food security. According to the study’s findings, under directive management, the region’s grain economy remained critically dependent on actual natural and climatic conditions. In turn, the post-reform period has seen new challenges affecting the functioning of the region’s grain economy, including increased volatility in yields and the size of grain acreage, and a decrease in the stability of grain production and sales volumes. It is necessary to highlight the resulting role of the system of strategic planning, forecasting, and state regulation of grain economy operations through adjustments to the mechanism of price budget support for agricultural producers, the active digitalization of industry management processes, and the implementation of measures to adapt agricultural enterprises to observed climate change.