Strategic planning and economic scenarios: the assessment of social and economic development trends

The scientific article is devoted to strategic planning issues and assessment of modern trends of social and economic development. The aim of the study is to analyze and classify the tools of creating economic scenarios, to examine the factors that affect the values of the indicators in question. Economic scenarios provide the perspective view on the development of individual entities and the country as a whole, that is why the analysis of the methodological principles is vitally important. In the study the analysis of the strategic planning principles has been carried out. The examination of the indicators of the social and economic development of a regional entity has been performed. The Smolensk region has been taken as the object of the study, the assessment of the change of the economic indicators refers to the period between 2010 and 2023. The system of indicators of social and economic development has been justified to be used for economic scenarios. With the use of regression correlation analysis, the interaction closeness of the examined regional indicators has been estimated. The assessment of the change of a number of regional key social and economic indicators has been performed. Linear and non-linear trend models have been created to provide a more definite general trend of the indicator change. A number of regression models with different sets of factor indicators have been devised. The quality analysis of the created models has been carried out. The analysis of methods of making economic scenarios has been provided. Scientific and practical implications of the study lie in the opportunity of using the described tools to provide economic scenarios when devising strategic plans for both mid-term and long-term prospects.