Stress-testing in industrial production: modeling the stability barrier

The functioning of economic entities in a market economy is accompanied by significant risks that can lead to negative consequences and reduce the amount of cash receipts from economic activities. Especially the presence of high risks is typical for the business sector in poorly developed and developing economies, as well as for the national economy in countries with an unstable geopolitical background, which can include the Russian specifics of business. To minimize risk situations, you can use methods for predicting the worst-case scenarios that can determine the presence of stability barriers for the company and the possible percentage of profit reduction. In this article, we propose to consider the method of stress testing, the use of which in industrial enterprises allows us to assess the level of their resistance to the occurrence of sharp externalities and other adverse situations. Practical use of this method will allow us to assess the survival of a business entity in the event of the worst-case scenario of external influence. Based on the obtained data, corporate management has the opportunity to assess the enterprise’s stability barrier and model the possibilities of its formation to counteract absolute risks, that is, those that lead to unprofitable activities and are able to completely liquidate the business. As a result of testing the proposed method at an industrial enterprise, the company’s ultimate stability was revealed, and an action plan was proposed to prevent business liquidation. Similar testing of the method can be carried out for other enterprises, and further research is planned.