Subregional models of the conflict process: research methodology

The paper presents the main methodological approaches to the study of sub-regional models of the conflict process in the South of Russia. The author substantiates and emphasizes the importance of scenario comparative method and social modeling, focuses on the use of interdisciplinary scientific tools, as well as the integrated concept of J. Galtung. The article discusses in detail the problems of studying and ensuring the security of the political and economic structure of the sub-region, pays attention to conceptual approaches to determining the degree of stability of its main functional components in crisis situations, as well as in the context of the escalation of geopolitical and socio-economic conflicts, the growth of migration flows and information warfare in the global space. In this study, the authors provide an argument for the causes of the emergence and escalation of the sub-regional conflict process on the basis of the analytical axiology of the multi-ethnic region. In the process of interpretation of the concept of “sub-regional model” the possibilities of scientific modeling and forecasting of scenarios of sub-region development on the basis of functional analysis of structural elements of this community are analyzed. The article also describes the main problems of implementation of the strategy of management of regional conflicts (including the role of regional ethnic elites in the formation of the conflict process), outlines the priorities and principles of this strategy, in particular the development of personnel policy and increasing the structural responsibility of the subregional authorities. The authors emphasize that on the basis of the most effective research practices and options for justifying the actualized evolutionary paradigms it is possible to implement the scientific and management model of correction and creation of a new, more equitable reality and to ensure the viability of the social system and favorable prospects for development.