Theoretical foundations of forecasting the main component dynamics of natural complexes in the biota monitoring system of the protection zone around Balakovo nuclear power station

The paper discusses the theoretical foundations of forecasting the ecosystem dynamics at further building and installation of new power blocks of Balakovo nuclear power station. Principal criteria of a prognostic model are considered, two key directions of prediction generation are determined. The former one simulates the course of natural dynamic processes while the latter does the response of ecosystems to pollution of the territory at sharp emissions of toxicants and their derivatives due to a possible emergency.