Shrinking cities of the Russian Arctic: statistical trends and public discourse on the causes of population outflow

The purpose of the article is to determine the most significant causes of population decline in the regions of the Russian Arctic. The object of the study was the urban population of the subjects of the Russian Arctic. The concept of a declining city, which has received various interpretations both in foreign and domestic scientific thought, was chosen as a theoretical framework for understanding the problem. In this article, the shrinkage of cities is understood as a cumulative result of economic and demographic factors that cause population decline in the form of natural loss and migration outflow. On the basis of statistical data, a steady demographic decline was recorded in the cities of the subjects of the Russian Arctic. This made it possible to confirm the validity of the use of this concept in relation to these territories. Based on the materials of domestic and foreign studies, the most general, systemic factors of population decline in the regions of the Russian Arctic were identified, such as: the historical context and the policy of Soviet industrialization, the specifics of the local (regional) identity of the inhabitants of the northern territories, global demographic trends. At the empirical level, a more detailed analysis of the subjective perception of the reasons for the outflow of the population from the Murmansk Oblast, reflected in the public discourse of the participants of the online community of the city of Murmansk in the social network VKontakte, was carried out. The initial analysis base included posts and comments of the community for 2021-2022 (a total of 23.817 posts and 926.583 comments), the target sample included 268 posts and 2621 comments. Open and axial coding techniques were used to identify three groups of urban development issues as causes of the outflow of population from the region: 1) natural and climatic conditions, 2) quality of life, 3) prospects for the development of the city. Quantitative analysis of the number of comments (under posts) and likes (under comments) allowed us to identify the most significant and persistent problems, which, of course, are of increased interest to representatives of municipal and regional authorities.