The impact of climate change on water resources in the MENA region

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is facing an escalating water crisis exacerbated by climate change, population growth, urbanization, and inefficient water resource management. By 2050, the region's population is expected to reach 724 million, significantly increasing water demand amid existing scarcity. From 2014 to 2020, water consumption grew by 540%, reaching 360 million m³ in 2020. During this period, average temperatures in the region have increased by 1.2°C since 1970, and a further rise of 1.5–3°C is expected by 2050, intensifying droughts, heatwaves, and water shortages. Additionally, regional precipitation has decreased by 4.66% over the past 60 years, with projections indicating a further decline of 5–20% by 2050, exacerbating water scarcity and reducing agricultural yields by 30%. Sea level rise of 3–5 mm per year in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea is causing salinization of coastal aquifers, threatening agriculture. The study analyzes the dynamics of water resources in the region under climate change and explores adaptation strategies. The findings highlight the need for integrated water resource management to mitigate climate risks and ensure sustainable water supply in the MENA region.