Influence of climate changes on navigation and development of the continental shelf in the Russian Arctic seas

This article considers factors that influencing navigation and mineral resources exploration on the Arctic shelf taking into account observed sea ice reduction. An analysis was made of the potential impact of some hydrometeorological factors on changes in the conditions of economic activity in the Arctic. It is shown that under certain synoptic situations, ice conditions for navigation in certair sections of the NSR route can significantly deteriorate, even with a decrease in the total ice cover in the Russian Arctic seas. Processes that previously proceeded rather slowly were activated. For example, the observed warming has led to an increase in the ice productivity of the outlet glaciers of the Arctic archipelagos of the Franz Josef Land, Novaya Zemlya, and Severnaya Zemlya. This led to an increase in number of icebergs and their parts on the shipping routes and higher iceberg danger. The area of open water has increased. It caused an increase in the speed, wind, currents, magnitude of periodic fluctuations and the size of the wind waves during the storms. The authors have concluded that the deterioration in the navigation situation can be observed despite of the increasing of the ice-free period duration in some areas of the Arctic seas and the Northern Sea Route. An increase in the frequency of critical values of icebergs, currents, waves and level fluctuations in general led to a more complicated environment for the economic development of the Arctic shelf and a growth in the load on hydraulic structures. At the same time, the growth in traffic along the Northern Sea Route with a change in the ice-hydrological characteristics creates conditions providing more rapid spread of oil pollution during accidental spills.