Impact of doses uncertainties on the radiation risks estimation

The models of Classical and Berkson's errors existed together in the exposure doses are considered. The simulation-stochastic modeling of radiation risk at different uncertainty levels in the thyroid radiation doses are developed based on the imitation of real subpopulation of children and teenagers younger 18 years (301907 persons from 1293 settlements of Zhytomyr, Kiev and Chernigiv oblasts of Ukraine). Parameter estimations of absolute risk are taken by "naive" and "nonnaive" methods. It is demonstrated the influence of classical and Berkson multiplicative errors variances in the radiation doses on the estimations of absolute risk excess and background rate. The dependences of "naive" and "non-naive" estimations confidence intervals on the level of uncertainties in the radiation doses are analyzed for different types of errors.