Initial data uncertainty influence on effectiveness of non-reflective sys-tem statistical simulation. Part 1. Test statistical simulation model

This work is concerned with problem of analysis of initial data uncertainty influence on statistical simulation results. We researched a complex hierarchical non-reflective system. The uncertainty of the initial data is taken into account during formation of random numerical values by modeling of stochastic factors, which have an influence on the non-reflective system operation. The first part of work presents statistical simulation model for business process of Tyumen region Multifunctional center for provision of pub-lic and municipal services that was selected as the test object. We propose verbal model for testing both business process and simulation algorithm with its implementation by software AnyLogic. Second part of work will present analysis by the example of selected test models to estimate influence of initial data uncertainties on statistical simulation model effective-ness.