Impact of state support programs for preferential categories of citizens on the dynamics of repayment of mortgage loans in 2017-2021

The article deals with the problems of the current state and prospects for the development of the mortgage lending market in the Russian Federation in the light of the transformational processes taking place on it, associated, on the one hand, with a decrease in investment activity in the mortgage lending segment, and, on the other hand, with the resumption and expansion of state programs to subsidize interest mortgage rates for certain groups of borrowers. The statistical base of the authors’ analysis of the mortgage lending sector was data on commercial banks that are active participants in this type of lending, reflecting the dynamics of mortgage loan repayments in 2017-2021. To form an idea of the structure of the mortgage lending market, we used data on the financial performance of four banks participating in the programs of the Government of the Russian Federation and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation to support preferential mortgage lending. To analyze the dynamics of interest rates and repayment volumes of mortgage loans in the context of the implementation of government decrees on the introduction of incentives in the field of housing mortgages and related indicators (the weighted average interest rate on mortgage loans, the weighted average refinancing rate, the volume of subsidies allocated by the Government of the Russian Federation to banks), regression methods were used. analysis (in particular, building a linear regression model for a group of indicators), which made it possible to draw reasonable conclusions about the impact of state programs on the mortgage lending market and directions for strengthening state support for mortgages in the Russian Federation.