The law of "successful" criminals. Measuring the profitability of criminal activity

Introduction: the purpose of the article is to determine the general law of successful criminal activity, empirical laws of successful theft, the general formula of gross income of professional criminals. Materials and Methods: the primary statistical data on the level of crime; methods of mathematical analysis, probability theory and mathematical statistics. Results: 1) a general strict negative exponential law of successful and unsuccessful criminal activity is established: t=Ae- kn; 2) a strict negative exponential law of successful theft in Russia for 2018 has been established taking into account latency: t=100∙e - 0,133∙n ; 3) the general formula for the gross income of a professional criminal when committing an arbitrary number of crimes is established: ; 4) it is proved that it is effective to commit a small series of thefts (no more than three), and professional theft is a loss-making activity. It is shown that after the second crime there is a rapid drop in profitability in this type of "individual business"; 5) it is shown how the relative real number of solved crimes is measured, as opposed to their nominal number: .