Rural population dependence on the level of agricultural development: panel data analysis of Leningrad oblast

Rural development has been and remains a relevant government task. Dynamic structural and technological changes in the agricultural sector lead to the need of reassessing the mutual influence of the level of development of agricultural production and rural areas. The study deals with quantitative assessment of the dependence of rural population size as an integral indicator of socio-economic well-being of rural areas on selected factors and indicators that characterize the level of agricultural development, its sectoral specifics and the structure of agricultural producers. Empirical estimates were obtained from panel data of municipal districts in Leningrad oblast for 2012-2018. The greatest positive impact on the rural population size among the considered characteristics of agriculture is determined for the factor of sown areas that is associated with the specifics of agricultural sub-sectors, their different needs for such factors as land and labor, the development potential for small-scale farming. It was found that the concentration of agricultural production in the large commercial sector has a negative impact on the rural population size. This is explained by difference in employment dynamics and redistribution of resources between categories of agricultural producers. Modeling results showed that agrarian subsidies received by agricultural producers have a statistically insignificant impact on rural population that justifies the need to adjust the orientation and forms of agricultural state support to achieve a synergetic effect on rural development.