Grain production: trends, models and opportunities in the regional context

The issues of increasing sustainability and efficiency of the development of grain farming are among the priorities in the discussions of domestic and foreign scientists, since grain production is a backbone segment of the entire agro-industrial system, as well as the dominant factor in ensuring food security in the world. In this regard, there is an objective need to solve a number of theoretical, methodological and analytical problems, to develop scientific and practical recommendations for minimizing economic and agro-climatic risks in the grain production, increasing yields and gross harvests of grain varieties and legume crops, as well as maximizing revenue and profit from the grain sale. In the presented material, using general scientific and econometric approaches, the monitoring of dynamic changes in the gross yield, crop acreage and yield of grain and legume crops in the Oryol region for the period of 2010-2020 was carried out, the trends in yield growth were established, the structural content of the grain production potential of the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation was estimated. The indicators of profitability of certain types of cereals and legumes were calculated and assessed; an increase in the efficiency of the grain industry development of the Oryol region was stated. Mathematical models have been developed (one random model and two deterministic models, respectively), their analytical solutions have been found, the application of the constructed and solved models is shown by a specific example. The analysis of the obtained numerical results from the standpoint of the implementation of three strategies: firstly, from the point of view of planning cropping pattern with the minimization of risks associated with possible unfavorable agro-climatic conditions; secondly, from the point of view of obtaining maximum income from the grain sale; thirdly, from the point of view of obtaining high yields, is carried out.