Collapse of civilization or the transition to a new stage of historical development?

This article attempts to analyze different alternatives of historical development in Russia caused by the revolution of 1917 and the ensuing civil war. The authors consider three main options for such alternatives. The first one is presented within the paradigm multi-stage approach. It involves the process of historical movement in accordance with the principles of “lowest to highest”, “from simple to complex”. The result of this movement should be developing according to the logic of progress. The purpose of the progressive development of analyses based on the alignment of political forces that emerged before and during the 1917 revolution. Based on the application of stadial methodology, there are two target vectors. One is directed toward the liberal values of Western civilization, may in the opinion of the ideologues of this movement to bring Russia to the level of a developed industrial society with strong democratic values. The second are estimated using formation approach K. Marx, where as the final point of the movement indicated in the direction of a Communist society. The second alternative was analyzed in the context of the likelihood of the collapse of traditional Russian identity, formed on the basis of the values of Orthodox civilization. Difficulty study the second alternative was due to the belief of the authors that 1917 was the starting point of transformation of the traditional Russian mentality, which currently is in the process of revival through the dedicated effort of the government. The reality of implementation at this stage, the second alternative contacts with the growing power of the state, but at the same time overcoming such negative manifestations of corruption, bureaucracy, the economic crisis, distrust of the government. The third alternative is a deepening of the crisis and the territorial disintegration as a likely not measured, but the low level of its hypothetical probability depends on overcoming the above-mentioned negative tendencies in the modern political management.