A solid “mandate of trust”: 76 million people voted for Vladimir Putin’s fifth presidential term

Автор: Ilyin V.A., Morev M.V.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Editorial

Статья в выпуске: 2 т.17, 2024 года.

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According to the results of the presidential election held in Russia on March 17, 2024, more than 76 million people voted for the current head of state Vladimir Putin (87% of those who took part in the vote); this is almost twofold greater than in his first presidential election (on March 26, 2000, 40 million, or 53% of the voters who participated in the election, voted for Vladimir Putin). The article analyzes reasons for such a solid “mandate of trust” that the President obtained; they include not only the support of the majority of Russians for the general course of national development implemented by Vladimir Putin, but also the specifics of the historical period during which the 2024 presidential election was held, as well as the results of voting on the territory of the new RF constituent entities that joined Russia after the 2014 coup in Ukraine. In the context of the ongoing special military operation and lingering threats to national security, the internal situation in Russia, which determines popular support for the President, is of particular importance. In this regard, we draw attention to the importance of effective (full-fledged and timely) implementation of the election promises of the head of state, which Vladimir Putin announced in his Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation on February 29, 2024. The fulfiilment of the tasks set by the President for the period up to 2030 largely depends on the elites in the system of public administration; therefore, at the beginning of a new political cycle and Vladimir Putin’s fifth presidential term (2024-2030) a lot will depend on the new Government of the Russian Federation, whose composition will be announced in May 2024, after the presidential inauguration. With the help of expert assessments, statistical data and the results of sociological surveys we analyze reasons for the incomplete fulfillment of instructions and tasks that Vladimir Putin outlined in his previous election speeches, and in relation to the current situation we conclude that the key conditions for further implementation of the national development course are the achievement of all the goals of the special military operation and the continuation of the process of nationalization of the elites. The article presents calculations based on official data of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation on the results of the presidential elections of 2024 and 2018 in all constituent entities and federal districts of the Russian Federation. We analyze the allRussian dynamics of turnout and voting results in ah presidential elections in Russia for the period from 2000 to 2024. We make an overview of expert assessments regarding the work of the RF Government headed by M.V. Mishustin. The facts showing the presence of acute unresolved problems in the system of public administration are collected and systematized in key areas of national development.

Еще

Rf presidential election, national development course, elites, rf government, “time of heroes”

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147243612

IDR: 147243612 | DOI: 10.15838/esc.2024.2.92.1

Текст научной статьи A solid “mandate of trust”: 76 million people voted for Vladimir Putin’s fifth presidential term

March 17, 2024, the presidential election was held in Russia; quite expectedly for the vast majority of experts, the current head of state, Vladimir Putin, won a landslide victory.

According to the data of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation (CEC RF), published on March 21, 2024 ¹ , more than 76 million people (87% of those who took part in the election) voted for Vladimir Putin. It is important to note that in comparison with the previous presidential election (March 18, 2018), the share of votes cast for Vladimir Putin increased in almost all constituent entities and federal districts of the Russian Federation ( Appendix; pp. 37–41 ).

An analysis of the CEC data for all the presidential elections held in Russia from 2000 to 2024 shows that in the 24 years since Vladimir Putin was first elected head of state, his approval rating in the whole country has actually doubled (by almost 37 million people): from 39.74 to 76.28 million voters (Tab. 1).

In our opinion, there are three constituent elements in the twofold increase in the level of support for Vladimir Putin in the presidential election in 2024 compared to 2000; each of the components is a kind of criterion for the effectiveness of public administration and Vladimir Putin’s work as President of the Russian Federation:

The first element is actual assessment by the Russian society of the course of national development implemented by Vladimir Putin. According to experts, it is “approval of what the President has done in all previous years” ² .

Table 1. Dynamics of voter turnout and approval rating of Vladimir Putin in the presidential elections for the period from 2000 to 2024 (nationwide, data of the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation)

Indicator	Presidential election date						Dynamics (+/-), 2024 to …
Indicator	March 26, 2000	March 14, 2004	March 2, 2008*	March 4, 2012	March 18, 2018	March 17, 2024	2018	2000
Turnout
abs. million people	75.18	69.50	74.85	71.78	73.63	87.58	+13.95	+12.4
%	68.70	64.38	69.81	65.34	67.54	77.49	+9.95	+8.79
Support for Vladimir Putin
abs. million people	39.74	49.56	52.53	45.60	56.43	76.28	+19.85	+36.54
%	52.94	71.31	70.28	63.60	76.69	87.28	+10.59	+34.34
* For Dmitry Medvedev. Source: CEC RF.

The second element is expansion of the territorial borders of the Russian Federation. In total, almost five million people (4.77 million) voted for Vladimir Putin in the new territories of the Russian Federation (including the Republic of Crimea, city of Sevastopol, DPR, LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions).

The third element is specifics of the historical period that Russia has been going through since Vladimir Putin announced the start of the special military operation on the territory of Ukraine (February 24, 2022).

In the context of increasing threats to national security: ongoing economic sanctions, the growth of terrorist activity on the part of the “Kiev regime”3, as well as discussions at the highest level of the political and military leadership of NATO countries on the possibility of sending a military contingent to the zone of SMO, the presidential elections in Russia were considered by society “as an event of common destiny, on which the future depends”4.

In the atmosphere of wartime, the election was held in the mode of military mobilization... The logic “for power – or we perish” for many voters turned out to be the main dominant behavior on voting days”.

M. Muzaev (election expert, Moscow): “Surveys investigating the level of support for national leaders show that the rating of the government increases during tragedies and international conflicts... Therefore, indeed, there is the effect of “consolidating around the flag” in the RF presidential election ... to deny the high rating of the President means to look at politics through rose-tinted spectacles. The Russians have given a mandate of support to the head of state against the background of the SMO” ⁵ .

Therefore, it is no coincidence that among the motives of voters, many experts noted the effect of “consolidation around the flag”, as well as the choice dictated by the logic such as “for power – or we perish”.

This is also evidenced by the results of allRussian and regional monitoring sociological studies, according to which, since the beginning of the SMO, Russian society has shown an increased need for a stable and peaceful life .

According to the Institute of Sociology FCTAS RAS, from 2022 to 2023, the share of Russians for whom stability is more important than change in the country increased by 13 percentage points (from 49 to 62%; Fig. 1). According to VolRC RAS public opinion monitoring, the proportion of Vologda Region residents who share this point of view increased by 8 percentage points over the period from 2022 to 2024 (from 39 to 47%; Fig. 2).

Today, as scientists note, “stability is the main thing that people want with all their heart” ⁶ ; this is quite natural, because the understanding of stability before and during an actual full-fledged war has completely different content: in the first case, it is rather about stagnation, the absence of “new forms of economic and political life in the country” ⁷ and “maintaining a reduced standard of living” ⁸ (this was the reason for the request for change, which was observed before the start of the SMO); in the second case, stability is understood as the achievement of one of the natural human needs – the need for security.

Figure 2. “What is more important for the country today – stability or change?” (VolRC RAS data), % of respondents

Figure 1. “What is most important to you?” (IS FCTAS RAS data), % of respondents

Source: Rossiyskaya gazeta, November 22, 2023.

45.3 44.6

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_{34.9 36.1} 38.6 38.3 37.7

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

—A—The country needs stability, this is more important than change

— ■ — The country needs significant change, new reforms are required in the economic and political life of the country

Source: VolRC RAS public opinion monitoring.

In conditions of a high level of uncertainty about the future and risks caused by threats to national security from the Collective West, Vladimir Putin’s pre-election Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation inspired “confidence and optimism”. This was noted by many experts ⁹ . Moreover, it is very important that “ 80% of the Address announced by the head of state on February 29, 2024 was devoted to social policy and measures aimed at improving the quality of life of Russian citizens ” ¹⁰ . Vladimir

Putin clearly outlined the goals and objectives for the next six years (until 2030) and, thus, let the public know that he understands how and at what expense the country will develop in the current geopolitical context.

At the same time, we should note that almost all pre-election public speeches by the President were oriented toward the future, contained a list of clear priorities for national development and concerned daily life of citizens ( Tab. 2 ).

Some of the tasks set by the President of the Russian Federation in his Address to the Federal Assembly on February 29, 2024 to be implemented by 2030 ¹¹ :

^ poverty level in Russia should be below 7%; among large families, it should decrease more than twofold, at least to 12%;

^ maternity capital and the family mortgage program should be prolonged;

^ life expectancy in Russia should reach at least 78 years;

^ by 2030 to complete the major repairs of all schools; to open 12 leadership-level educational schools, 25 university campuses; to carry out major repairs of about 800 dormitories of higher education institutions and universities;

^ minimum wage in Russia should increase almost twofold - up to 35 thousand rubles;

^ by 2030 it is necessary to create digital platforms in all key sectors of the economy and social sphere;

^ by 2030 to restore at least a thousand cultural heritage sites, to improve more than 30 thousand public spaces;

^ by 2030 to allocate 4.5 trillion rubles for the modernization of municipal infrastructure;

^ by 2030 the tourist flow should double and reach 140 million people per year; at the same time, the contribution of tourism to Russia’s GDP will also double to 5%;

^ in the next six years, more than a trillion rubles should be additionally allocated for the construction, repair and equipping of healthcare facilities;
^ average income per employee in the field of small and medium-sized business in the next six years should grow faster than the rate of GDP growth.

Table 2. Vladimir Putin’s public speeches before the presidential election

Source	Quote
“Open letter” to voters, February 25, 2000 ¹²(before the RF presidential election on March 26, 2000):	“Our priority is to overcome our own poverty... if we are looking for a slogan for my election position, it is very simple. It’s a decent life ; decent in the very sense in which most of my fellow citizens want to see it and believe in it” .
Vladimir Putin’s speech before his trusted representatives, February 12, 2004 ¹³ (before the RF presidential election on March 14, 2004):	“The main goal of all out actions is to improve the quality of life … Today we feel that the time of uncertainty and anxious expectations has passed. A new period has come – a period of work on creating conditions for the transition to a fundamentally better quality of life... it is in our power. And we will do it, we will definitely do it”.
Vladimir Putin’s speech at an expanded meeting of the State Council “On the development strategy of Russia until 2020” February 8, 2008 ¹⁴ (before the RF presidential election on March 2, 2008)	“We need to ensure that all citizens of our country , using their knowledge and skills, and where necessary, state assistance, have the opportunity to receive quality education, maintain their health, purchase housing, and receive decent incomes. That is, to have a standard of living that determines belonging to the so-called middle class... today we set a much more ambitious task – to achieve a qualitative change in life, a qualitative change in the country, its economy and social sphere”.
Vladimir Putin’s speech at the United Russia Party Congress on September 24, 2011 ¹⁵(before the RF presidential election on March 4, 2012)	“If we really want to succeed, then the focus of our attention should always be on a person – a citizen of Russia! Russian families should feel positive changes in their lives, this is the main meaning and purpose of our entire work ... A lot needs to be changed for the better in our economy, in the social sphere, in the lives of our citizens. I am sure that we are able to do this and will do it on the basis of national consolidation”.
Address to the RF Federal Assembly on March 1, 2018 ¹⁶ (before the RF presidential election on March 18, 2018)	“At the heart of everything lies the preservation of the people of Russia and the well-being of our citizens. It is here that we need to make a decisive breakthrough ... I think the main, key driver of development is the well-being of people, prosperity of Russian families…”
Address to the RF Federal Assembly on February 29, 2024 ¹⁷ (before the RF presidential election on March 17, 2024)	“Citizens’ proposals, their aspirations and hopes have become the basis, the core of those projects and initiatives that will be voiced today... The plans are big, the expenses are also significant. Large-scale investments in the social sphere, demography, economics, science, technology, infrastructure are coming... Solutions in the field of financial support for regions, economic growth, should work to improve the quality of life of people in all constituent entities of the Federation… I want to emphasize that the main result of our programs is not measured in tons, kilometers and the amount of money spent. The main thing is assessment given by the people, how their lives are changing for the better ”.

However, according to experts, many of the goals and objectives that were announced by the head of state on the eve of the presidential elections, were not fully achieved or remained “ink on paper”.

And this is, obviously, due to the people who were entrusted with their implementation; those representatives of the ruling elites who were either unable or not interested in fulfilling the instructions of the head of state.

Many of their names became known after the beginning of the SMO ( Insert 1 ), and, in short, at different periods over the past 24 years, they were responsible for almost all key areas of state national policy: from the military-industrial complex and the economy to social development and interethnic relations.

We can say that the threats to national security that the country faced after the start of the SMO made the task of achieving sovereignty in all spheres the issue of “life and death”, and it depends primarily on the staffing of the public administration system – the ruling elites of the country, directly involved in the practical implementation of the guidelines designated by the head of state. However, even today, the real facts ( Insert 2 ) indicate that elites often conduct their activities guided not by national interests and presidential instructions, but primarily by their own motives and ideological dogmas imposed on them by the Collective West, in particular through the recommendations and rules of international organizations (WTO, IOC, WHO, etc.).

“Activists of the All-Russian Popular Front (ONF) analyzed the implementation of the May decrees of Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to the statement of the head of the executive committee of the ONF A. Anisimova, out of 179 points, only 35 were fulfilled: “The ONF is monitoring the execution of orders based on eight May decrees and instructions for their development. Experts have prepared conclusions on the reports of the Russian government on 179 instructions within the framework of the implementation of the May decrees and in their development. Of these, the ONF considers 35 orders fulfilled, 44 orders are not executed, and 100 orders are partially executed and require revision” ¹⁸ .

“On the eve of the announcement of the new presidential address to the Federal Assembly, the People’s Front “For Russia” (NF) reported on the execution of the previous two. It turned out that the message of 2023 has been fulfilled by 86% so far, and the message of 2021 – only by 61%” ¹⁹ .

We emphasize that these facts took place after the start of the SMO and therefore the doubts of experts that the special military operation really changed something in the Russian elites become quite understandable – so much so that they can match the scale of the challenges and tasks facing the country at such a turning point in history … Including the implementation of the instructions of the head of state, which were voiced in the Address to the Federal Assembly on February 29, 2024.

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However, the issue is not even about achieving the specific indicators contained in the Address. As we noted earlier, many of them had not been achieved before, but this did not affect the stability of such important trends in society as an increase in the level of trust in almost all state and public institutions in the country (including all authorities), an improvement in the psychological well-being of the population (Insert 3), which “largely depends on the degree of resolvability of social problems and contradictions, as well as satisfaction of social interests37), decrease in protest potential (Fig. 3), and many others (Fig. 4).

Figure 3. Dynamics of social mood (VolRC RAS average annual data), % of respondents

B. Yeltsin's presidential term (1996 – 1999)

V. Putin's first presidential term (2000 – 2003)

V. Putin's second presidential term (2004 – 2007)

D. Medvedev's presidential term (2008 – 2011)

V. Putin's third presidential term (2012 – 2017)

V. Putin's fourth presidential term (2018 – 2023)

V. Putin's fifth presidential term (2024 – present)

—■— Great mood; normal, fine condition

—A— I feel tension, irritation, fear, sadness

Wording of the question: “What could you say about your mood in recent days?”

Figure 4. Dynamics of protest potential (VolRC RAS average annual data), % of respondents

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B. Yeltsin's presidential term (1996 – 1999)

V. Putin's first presidential term (2000 – 2003)

V. Putin's second presidential term (2004 – 2007)

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V. Putin's third presidential term (2012 – 2017)

V. Putin's fourth presidential term (2018 – 2023)

V. Putin's fifth presidential term (2024 – present)

The protest potential is the proportion of respondents who answered the question “What are you ready to do to protect your interests?” as follows: “I will go to a rally, demonstration”; “I will participate in strikes, protest actions”; “If necessary, I will take up arms, I will go to the barricades”.

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In addition, the Government of the Russian Federation, chaired by Mikhail Mishustin (whose candidacy was proposed by the President on January 15, 2020), has managed to do a lot in four years to ensure that the Russian economy could develop successfully, and in extremely difficult conditions associated first with the COVID-19 epidemic, and then with the special military operation (Insert 4).

Today, the President and the Government continue to actively take measures aimed at strengthening the Russian economy, supporting the population and restoring order in the country, which ultimately allows Russia to continue to fight for its national sovereignty, or rather for the preservation of its statehood, culture, and territorial borders (Insert 5).

Thus, we cannot but agree that “currently, the immune system of our country is mobilized and is functioning at its peak³⁸and that it has “a large number of real patriots; a relatively large healthy

“… We cannot say that the entire current dominant social stratum is totally affected by vices, there is also a relatively large healthy core in it. This very core is now pulling the country out of the abyss, pushing through the measures necessary for its survival and development... There are many statespeople who, due to the circumstances, had to hide their patriotic views for a long time, adapt and work within the framework of the liberal matrix program imposed on the country and the total dominance of its bearers in government. In addition, both at the lower and middle levels, there are still a large number of real patriots in power”³⁹.

core that is pulling the country out of the abyss”. But given the unprecedented threats to national security that Russia has faced since February 24, 2022, it would be short-sighted and simply dangerous to look at the situation in the country through rose-tinted spectacles.

The problem, as we have already said, is not that some of the goals outlined in the Address have been achieved, and some have not, but that today for Russia there arises a question of “to be or not to be”: the country must make a full-fledged U-turn from the liberal past in which it has existed for the last 30 years and which has produced not just a generation of elites, but an entire generation of Russian society. Therefore, the reversal should be appropriate in scale: starting from the everyday consciousness of ordinary citizens and ending with the conceptual, system-forming principles of economic development, culture, domestic and foreign policy, moral guidelines.

It is a big question whether the current ruling elite, in which “a critical mass of people who are incapable of mobilization and historical breakthrough, has accumulated over the previous ... decades”⁴⁰, will be capable of making such a U-turn. This, of course, arouses concern for the future of the country in the external context in which it found itself after February 24, 2022.

“The presence of a large “liberal tumor” that has formed over decades significantly complicates and hinders the implementation of solutions necessary for the survival and development of the country… There are not so many outright enemies, as they say, but they are well placed”⁴¹.

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49 Solovyova O. The outgoing government sets its own goals for the future. Available at:

50 Ibidem.

51 Ibidem.

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⁵² The insert is a continuation of the monitoring of the most important regulatory legal acts signed by the RF President; we have been conducting the monitoring since June 2022. Thus, it has been going on for 19 months; its results have been published in 10 articles (the first issue of the monitoring is presented in the article: Ilyin V.A., Morev M.V. (2022). A difficult road after the Rubicon. Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 15(3), 9–41).

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Much in this matter will depend on the composition of the new Government of the Russian Federation, which will be announced in May 2024 after the presidential inauguration. Will the head of state really succeed “in determining who and in what position will work most effectively so that the overall result and teamwork are most effective”53, or will the Cabinet of Ministers be filled by people who exclude the social studies course from the school curriculum, and include courses such as golf and cheerleading in the junior school physical education program, allegedly forming in students “a sense of patriotism, moral qualities ... a manifestation of a sense of pride for their Homeland, the Russian people and the history of Russia…”54 (as some experts have noted, “... it is very difficult to comment on this without using swearwords. It turns out that in our country, in the current conditions, a sense of patriotism and collectivism can and should be fostered through golf classes. But here we are…”55

“What kind of patriotism is this and in the interests of whose country, may I ask?... If the minister, based on personal relationships and an understanding of values, needs to introduce golf classes in some specific elite school on Rublevka or Novorizhskoye highway at a budget expense, then it is not necessary to mix this Western American culture with our domestic patriotism... The Ministry of Education becomes completely nonRussian and completely toxic. We believe that it is high time for the bodies responsible for the protection of state sovereignty to become interested in his activities” (Kirill Kabanov, member of the Human Rights Council under the President of the Russian Federation)⁵⁶.

“Since when has the favorite game of Deputy Prime Minister Golikova’s husband Viktor Khristenko and other Russian and Western oligarchs become a measure of morality and patriotism? Many notable Russian oligarchs promote the development of golf: Oleg Deripaska, Roman Abramovich, Vladimir Potanin and others. Of course, the digital transformer globalist German Gref is also very fond of golf. In 2017, an auction was held in Ljubljana (Slovenia), at which Sberbank bought a golf club previously owned by Golf Projekti for 5.78 million euros. The common people have no money for this sport, and in our country it has never been popular – for obvious reasons. Moreover, golf has little to do with physical development… As you can see, Kravtsov’s office is not at all embarrassed by all this. And what kind of collectivism is there in golf, and what are our traditional values – who can explain it clearly? And most importantly, how can you give the opportunity to conduct “golf classes” as part of the main physical education classes? During the war with the Collective West, this looks like outright mockery and a demonstration of the complete isolation of the government from the people. So, for them, a patriot is not a guy who gave his life “for his friends”, but a member of an elite golf club from a family of oligarchs” (RIA “Katyusha”).

“I consider this initiative unjustified, hasty and as if from another space that is not even in the neighborhood of the field of education” (A. Snegurov, Honored Teacher of the Russian Federation, historian, Candidate of Sciences (Psychology), Professor of the Moscow State Pedagogical University)⁵⁷.

The importance of personnel decisions that the President will make in May can be judged, for example, by the “intensity” of publications of M.G. Delyagin, one of the experts whose opinion we often refer to in our articles and who pays considerable attention to the analysis of Government activities and is himself part of the public administration system – an economist, a deputy of the State Duma of the Russian Federation from the party “The Just Russia – For the Truth”.

Since March 15, 2024 (that is, literally on the eve of the presidential election), he engaged in harsh criticism of “fictitious managers” and “young technology thieves” nurtured by the country, which are the fruits of 37 years of national betrayal that have not yet come to an end”⁵⁸, as well as calls to “bring a decisive end to the 37-year era of national betrayal”⁵⁹, “purify public administration from the slaves of the West... and, most importantly, to change the colonial economic mechanism created in the late 1980s – early 1990s”⁶⁰.

However, even despite the considerable attention and hopes that experts express regarding the formation of a new cabinet of ministers, many of them are very skeptical about this. They do not see “any hints of abandoning the liberal paradigm” do not expect serious changes in the Government and, on the contrary, predict a strategy of “sweeping problems under the carpet”.

And this, unfortunately, creates risks for the full-fledged implementation of the elite change mechanism, the establishment of which was initiated by Vladimir Putin in his Address to the Federal Assembly on February 29, 2024; this mechanism is the educational program Time of Heroes”.

D.A. Bulanov (election analyst, Saratov Region Duma deputy, editor-in-chief of the newspaper “Kommunist – Vek XX–XXI”): “Now the Kremlin is able to maintain a balance, but no one knows what will happen in the future – the planning horizon in the country is at critically low values... we should not wait for a “thaw” and reforms, but on the contrary – there will be a continuation of “tightening the screws” and sweeping problems under the carpet”.

N.I. Popov (publicist, election analyst): “As for the changes in the country after the presidential election, there will be tactical changes, but not strategical ones”.

A.M. Safronov (specialist in election processes, Krasnodar City Duma deputy): “As long as there are no economic grounds for the ruling elite to change something, there will be no changes. Any changes in the field of politics are the result of an awareness of mistakes and a desire to improve the effectiveness of the management system. So far, there is clearly no such desire in the highest echelons of power… There are no hints of a change in the liberal paradigm; the main vector of development of the Russian economy remains unchanged. And if there are no changes in economic sphere, then they are unlikely to be in politics either”⁶¹.

The program was developed by the Higher School of Public Administration at the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA). Its purpose is to “train high-skilled, competent managers from among the participants of the SMO for subsequent work in state and municipal authorities, as well as state-owned companies”⁶². And this, according to RANEPA rector A. Komissarov, will take “about two years”⁶³.

Information from the official website of the educational program “Time of Heroes”:

“Registration of participants in the selection for the educational program “Time of Heroes” ended on April 8, 2024. More than 44 thousand fighters and veterans of the special military operation will take part in the selection.

Applications were received from representatives of all age groups. The largest share falls on the group of participants aged 35 to 40 years – 23.14%; 20.17% of applications were received from participants aged 30 to 35 years. These age groups make up almost half of the participants in the selection”⁶⁴.

However, according to some experts, it will take much longer to achieve real changes in the management level: “Who knows, maybe in 10–15 years these fighters and officers will be mayors, governors»65. Moreover, there are fears that the liberal part of the public administration system that has developed over the decades will not give new, patriotic managers the opportunity to prove themselves at all: the system will either assimilate them or reject them.

“…with all due respect to the participants of the SMO, they are only part of the general patriotic Russian society, which has been strenuously suppressed in recent decades by liberals in power, who are very adept at this process. A reliable umbrella of “protection” for patriots going to power has not yet been created. Therefore, the existing system rejects most of these people or rebuilds their behavior to fit its vicious old ideological matrix…”⁶⁶

Thus, today, at the beginning of a new political cycle and V.V. Putin’s fifth presidential term, we are forced to state the inconsistency of the situation: hope, but also the uncertainty of the prospects for internal development.

So far, the President, “responsible for everything in the country”⁶⁷, has not given an answer to the main question: “What kind of state are we building?”: a liberal one, with the preservation of “crony capitalism, focused on embedding into the Western “civilizational” world, or a nationally oriented, sovereign social state based on traditional values and the opinion of the majority of the population?

“The number of billionaires from Russia in the Forbes ranking increased in 2024 to a record 125 people, which is 15 more people than in 2023. The combined wealth of Russian billionaires increased from 505 billion USD in 2023 to 577 billion USD⁶⁸”.

“The Russian economy is characterized by abnormally high income inequality and overconcentration of wealth. More than half of the country’s total assets belong to several hundred families... The number of Russian dollar billionaires has increased by almost 40% during the special military operation (SMO). And their wealth has increased by 63% over the period of the SMO, according to the compilers of the Forbes rating. The number of billionaires in Russia could be even higher, but 10 of them renounced their Russian citizenship.

Despite the increase in numbers, the group of super-rich Russians remains extremely small. Only less than 0.0001% of the adult population of the Russian Federation – or about 500 super-rich families own 40% of all financial assets of our country today…

After the start of the special military operation, the public perception of the main contradictions has changed dramatically. In particular, the negative attitudes of the population toward those who are called oligarchs have reached a maximum. More than a third (36%) of Russians said in 2023 that oligarchs were hindering national development”⁶⁹.

“The welfare state, as defined by the author of this term, the German historian, philosopher and economist of the 19th century Lorenz von Stein, is obliged to promote the economic and social progress of all its citizens, because ultimately the development of one is a condition for the development of the other... The function of the state is to maintain absolute equality of rights for all different social classes, for an individual through its power”⁷⁰.

However, today Russia is still characterized by an “abnormally high level of income inequality” and “over-concentration of wealth”. During the period of the SMO, the number of dollar billionaires in the country increased by 40%, and their wealth increased by 63%.

According to the results of sociological research, the contradiction between the poor and the rich is “the most acute” for the majority of citizens; this fact correlates with the same high level of need for social justice in society: in almost all major population groups (especially among low-income groups and people with secondary education), more than 50% of people say that that “modern Russian society is organized unfairly” and that the contradiction “between the poor and the rich” is the most acute for the country today (Tab. 3).

Table 3. Assessment of the most acute social contradictions and the degree of justice of the structure of modern Russian society (VolRC RAS data as of December 2023), % of respondents

Population group	Proportion of those who believe that the most acute contradictions today exist between the rich and the poor*	Proportion of those who believe that modern Russian society is organized unfairly**
Sex
Men	52.4	56.9
Women	54.7	52.5
Age
Under 30	56.1	54.7
30–55	50.1	54.9
Over 55	57.2	53.9
Education
Secondary and incomplete secondary	59.5	60.2
Secondary vocational	56.2	53.1
Higher and incomplete higher	44.7	51.4
Income group
Bottom 20%	61.4	55.6
Middle 60%	51.1	54.6
Top 20%	52.9	49.3
Territory
Vologda	51.0	54.8
Cherepovets	48.1	59.5
Districts	58.4	51.4
Region	53.7	54.5
* Wording of the question: “The contradictions between which groups of Russian society, in your opinion, are the most acute today?”. ** Wording of the question: “Do you think modern Russian society as a whole is organized fairly or unfairly?”

At the same time, we should note that the most important steps taken by the President over the past almost 25 years (the 1999 article “Russia at the Turn of the Millennium”, the 2007 Munich speech, accession of Crimea and Sevastopol to the Russian Federation in 2014, amendments to the Constitution in 2020, protection of Donbass, beginning of the SMO in 2022) prove that he aims to follow the path of building Russia as a sovereign national welfare state.

One way or another, it can only be stated that while the goals of the SMO have not been achieved and while the existing Russian elites have a preponderance of the old (liberal) generation

“Degradation of the modern world is most noticeable in the degradation of its elites… The spiritual world, the hierarchical world, the cultural world, a world in which the concepts of honor, dignity, and duty have not yet lost their meaning. And of course, to build such a world, we need a new elite: cultural, intellectual, creative, but even more so the military elite, the military aristocracy, which becomes the white bone of the military empire. The normal aristocratic elite of traditional society. For every real empire begins with the military elite”⁷¹.

compared to the new (patriotic) one, there remain the risks of failing to achieve the goals and objectives for the next six years, as well as targets for the longer term.

Without these two conditions, the path toward achieving full national sovereignty, which Russia embarked on at the beginning of Vladimir Putin’s first presidential term, will not be completed, which means that the President cannot hand the country over to his successor. At the same time, taking into account the current geopolitical situation and the civilizational conflict between Russia and the Collective West, the question should be put more strictly: without achieving the goals of the SMO and nationalizing the elites, Russia has no future, because only under these conditions can full national sovereignty be achieved, and returning to the “bosom” of the West (which promised to “tear the Russian economy to pieces” to dismember the country itself in order to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia, from which our country will no longer be able to recover) will simply be impossible.

In conclusion, we note one more point, which inspires hope and which seems to us very important and aimed at the future that will come after the end of the special military operation: in the election on March 17, 2024, Vladimir Putin received a very high, one might say, the maximum level of support from Russian society. It will be extremely difficult, and maybe even impossible, to maintain this level; and it is quite natural, since sooner or later the goals of the SMO will be achieved, the level of international tension (primarily around our country) will decrease, and the factor such as “consolidating around the flag” will give way to the most mundane, everyday needs of citizens in solving social problems, improving the quality of life, etc...

We hope that this period will not become a “stumbling block” in relations between society and the state, so that Russians’ trust in the authorities and in the course of national development implemented by Vladimir Putin were dictated not only by the unprecedented nature of threats to national security, but first of all by the real satisfaction of the majority of the country’s citizens with the activities of the entire public administration system: all its representatives at all levels of public authority – federal, regional, municipal… This is, of course, an ideal and most likely unattainable formula, but as the President says, “without ambitious goals we will never achieve anything”⁷².

APPENDIX

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