An estimate of the ecological risc. Analitical review of Publications

The research of the problems and concepts of the risk assessment is directly related to the situation in the moment in the Arctic in the connection with the here exploration, drilling and the production of hydrocarbons, their transport in the extreme environmental conditions of the Arctic environment. To assess the practical scale threats emerging in the Arctic during the development of the macro--‐region of the continental shelf, it is necessary to have a clear conceptual understand--‐ ing of the nature of the environmental risks and their assessment of the existing methodology. To some extent, solve this problem allows an overview made available scientific publications.

The role of modeling in the risk assessment

It should be noted that the methods for solving particular problems of the risk assessment may differ from the risks of different nature. Thus, the authors of [1] suggest that the risk assess--‐ ment of the technological origin statistical analysis of the previous experience is not quite ac--‐ ceptable. This is especially clear when it comes to new technologies. The authors propose the use of probabilistic safety analysis apparatus (probabilistic safety assessment, PSA), based on the simulation of hazards and the scenario approach. PSA methodology beginning to develop rapidly since the middle of the first decade of the XXI century, due, inter alia, and the efforts of the Inter--‐ national Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). At the IAEA contains the basic international standards in the risk analysis and safety man--‐made (primarily related to the use of nuclear energy) character .

В публикациях [2; 3; 4] приводится описание детерминированных и стохастических математических моделей, применяемых в экологических исследованиях (см. также [5; 6]).

In the work technogenic risk [7] is considered as the expectation of the consequences (damage) of the accomplishments of the initiating events, the probability of the event and the val--‐ ue of the damage taken as random variables (independent or dependent). As the author points out, to determine the probabilities of initiating events of failures and accidents "so far in the theo--‐ ry of security developed and widely used in practice ... a variety of the logic and probabilistic mod--‐ el--‐based techniques such as" fault tree "--‐" event tree "functional circuits integrity, common logic and probabilistic, topological, logical--‐graphic and other methods. Many of these models are de--‐ scribed theoretically in domestic and foreign literature".

Stochastic approach to ecological studies in the monograph [8]. Probabilistic methods of accounting for uncertainty in the estimation of the risks apply such approaches as Monte Carlo simulation of the 1st and 2nd order (first--‐and second--‐order Monte Carlo simulation), sensitivity analysis (sensitivity analysis), interval analysis (interval analysis), qualitative simulation (Qualitative Modelling), Bayesian belief networks (Bayesian Belief Networks), Akaike information criterion (Ai--‐ kake Information Criteria), probabilistic analysis boundaries (Probability Bounds Analysis), the the--‐ ory of informational deficit (Information Gap Theory) and hierarchical Bayesian methods (hierar--‐ chical Bayesian techniques) and others [9]. Other non--‐probabilistic approaches are described, in particular, in the article [10]..

In the work [11] tried to account for the individual risk of the perception conversion "objec--‐ tive" assessment individually. At the same time, risk means the expected damage and keeping in--‐ dividual perception is performed by introducing a correction factor. Detailed and very representa--‐ tive overview of probability distributions used in risk analysis, adapted to the theoretical principles of [12] is given in the manual. [13] Description of the main ecological models that are used in the risk assessments, given in [14].

When assessing the risks widespread application models the behavior of these systems, but it should always be borne in mind that the models are not always correctly describe the sys--‐ tem, which may lead to errors in the determination of the risk. In particular, the author of [15 drew attention to the need to comply with the requirements of the robustness of the model, es--‐ pecially in the case of the compliance with the precautionary principle (Precautionary Principle).

Ecological risc

Comprehensive outline of the historical development of the ecological risk assessment in the United States is given in [16]. According to [17], the environmental risk is defined as a chance (in the probabilistic sense) within a specified period of time with specific event occurs (usually negative) consequences. The authors emphasize the different nature used in the environmental risk assessment of probability: as a mathematical measure of the uncertainty and as a subjective measure of the degree doveriya.V largest Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems) UNESCO are three main types of the environmental risk in the context of the risk management: low probability events with serious consequences, common events with minor consequences and events with medium consequences [18].

Environmental risk assessment, according to [19], determines the probability (likelihood) that adverse ecological effects may occur as a result of exposure to one or more sources (stress factors, stressors). In a simplified version of ecological risk assessment (screeninglevelecologi--‐ calriskassessment) risk measure is considered the ratio of the concentration level (chemical, expo--‐ sure) toxicity (maximum allowable concentration, toxicity) in a deterministic interpretation [20 21].

As recommended by the Ministry of Education of the Russian Federation manual [22], risk is defined as "an event or a group of related random events prejudicial object with this risk". By the same author under the environmental risk is "the probability of the civil liability for the envi--‐ ronmental damage, as well as the life and health of third parties". And damage to the environ--‐ ment, according to the indemnity "is expressed as pollution or destruction of forest, water, air and land resources (for example, by fire or construction), damage to the biosphere and farmland. By the phrase "damage to life and health of third parties" means the result of "the harmful effects of the factors of production activities on the surrounding industrial facility population, expressed in the form of increased morbidity and mortality."

As quantitative estimates of the ecological risk applied statistical characteristics (expecta--‐ tion, median, quantile, etc.) appropriate probability distributions of random variables.

In [23] the risk --‐ is responsible for the decisions made under uncertainty. In the same pa--‐ per, see "Quantitative risk assessment" measure of the risk is considered the product of the prob--‐ ability of an accident and the likely relative damage, which is interpreted as the expectation of harm. Probability of an accident "is based on the analysis of operation of the facility or the tech--‐ nical system and processing of the statistical data on accidents." Probable relative damage is de--‐ termined "on the basis of the simulation of an emergency." The estimate of damage caused by the loss of the life is done with the involvement of "the so--‐called cost of living", expressed in monetary units. Note that the problem of estimating the cost of living is considered in detail in [24], and from the moral point of view.

According to [25], the "risk – is a quantitative measure of danger with regard to its conse--‐ quences. Consequences manifestations danger always bring damage which may be economic, so--‐ cial, environmental. Consequently, the risk assessment should be related to the assessment of damage: more than expected damage, the greater the risk. Moreover, the risk will be greater, the greater the probability of the hazards. Therefore, the risk can be defined as the product of the probability of the event in danger or process P on the magnitude of the expected consequences (damage). "Thus, the concept of the "risk" in the view of the authors combines two concepts --‐ "probability risk" and "harm" and "risk assessment, therefore, must be two--‐dimensional".

The last assertion is questionable, since the product of two scalar quantities is also a scalar, ie a one--‐dimensional quantity. Additional difficulties arise with the opinion of the authors that "it is important to measure the expected loss included all the possible consequences of the event or process. The full measure of the consequences should include various types of damage --‐ social, environmental, economic, moral, etc., because various measures of damage have different dimen--‐ sions, what, in fact, written by the authors: "Social damage caused by disease or death, trauma and stress, as well as various inconveniences, reducing quality of life". Environmental damage is determined by the negative effects of hazardous events and processes that cause deterioration of habitats. Economic damage is characterized by the monetary expression of the negative effects of hazardous events, phenomena and processes". The assertion that "the social, environmental and moral damages may also have monetary value" rather polemical.

In a recently published monograph [26] rightly pointed out that "a survey of the scientific papers dealing with environmental risks, shows that the main emphasis in them is a critical analy--‐ sis of the existing approaches and make recommendations for their improvement, which, of course, necessary". However, the main problem is that there is no universally accepted classifica--‐ tion of the environmental risks, as well as the structuring of the conceptual framework and sys--‐ tematic approach in their analysis. In a recently published monograph [26] rightly pointed out that "a survey of scientific papers dealing with environmental risks, shows that the main emphasis in them is a critical analysis of the existing approaches and make recommendations for their im--‐ provement, which, of course, necessary". However, the main problem is that there is no universal--‐ ly accepted classification of the environmental risks, as well as the structuring of the conceptual framework and systematic approach in their analysis.

Because, as the author wrote [26], "in the general risk in theoretical risk is defined as the probability of a particular process or phenomenon within a certain time or under certain circum--‐ stances", "it is logical to give the following definition of the environmental risk --‐ the probability of getting a certain damage manifestations resulting environmental hazards, or their combination in relation to the evaluation of a particular item". However, later the author under the risk under--‐ stands average damage as "monetary value of damage caused to the environment or its separate components, a manifestation of the natural and / or anthropogenic environmental hazard for a certain period of time in relation to a particular item evaluation". Environmental damage is formu--‐ lated by the author as a "negative change in the quality of the environment or its components caused by the manifestation of the natural and / or man--‐made environmental hazards, expressed physical indicators" that does not quite agree with the concept of damage (in the legal sense). In some cases, damage to the environment can not be assessed in terms of thecost, especially when it comes to buckling biocenosis or if the effects of adverse impacts may affect the distant future.

The report [27] presents an environmental risk as the product of the effects of the measure on their possibility (likelihood), and this measure can take values greater than one, resulting in a dimension of risk becomes quite clear. In the work [28] provides the rationale for the probabilistic assessment of the environmental instead of the deterministic risk assessments based on a com--‐ parison of the predicted or measured concentrations of the chemical exposures (exposure concen--‐ tration, EC) and harmless concentrations as EC does not account for the variability of concentra--‐ tions in time and space, as well as the sensitivity of target audiences (specie sensitivity, SS). The authors consider a more realistic probabilistic environmental risk assessment (Probabilistic Ecolog--‐ ical Risk Assessment, PERA), assuming EC and SS random variables, and accentuate the difference between the variability (variability), due to the random nature of the variables and uncertainties, which are due to errors caused by the inaccuracy of the measurement, closeness of the selected random distribution, application errors laboratory results to real conditions, etc. Under risk is the probability that EC> SS.

In the modern textbooks (see, eg, [29]), the advantage goes to the probabilistic interpreta--‐ tion of the concept of risk: "Risk: 1) a statistical concept, defined as the expected frequency or probability of adverse effects resulting from exposure to the hazard, and 2) the probability dam--‐ age (injury), illness or death in certain circumstances (conditions). In quantitative terms, risk is ex--‐ pressed in values ranging from zero (damage will not occur) to one (harm will occur); 3) the prob--‐ ability that an adverse effect will occur in an individual or group in the ecological system when ex--‐ posed to a certain dose or concentration of hazardous agent , ie it depends on the degree of tox--‐ icity of hazardous agent, and on the levels of exposure". At the same environmental risk (Ecologi--‐ cal risk) is understood as "the likelihood of developing plants and animals ( other than humans ) adverse effects caused by exposure to environmental factors". It is important to note the distinc--‐ tion between objects adverse impacts: environmental risk, according to the positions of the au--‐ thors benefit applies only to the animal world.

Risk to human health

The manual "Ecological Security. Ecological risk" of the Voronezh State University [30], un--‐ der the ecological risk understands "the probability of adverse health consequences". According to the indemnity in terms of quantifying the concept of "environmental risk" can be formulated as the ratio of the possible damage from exposure to harmful environmental factors over a certain time interval to a normalized intensity value of this factor. Under the possible damage, primarily refers to human health.

In the modern interpretation [31] the risk (in relation to health) --‐ it's likely that at some time an individual or group of people or plants, animals or the ecosystem certain places will re--‐ ceive adverse effects from exposure to certain portions or hazardous reagent concentration. The risk depends on the toxicity of the reagent, and the degree of exposure.

Under the risk to human health as a result of the disaster [32] refers to the symbolic formu--‐ la: risk multiplied by the difference between vulnerability and resources aimed at compensation of damage. For specific estimates authors propose the ranking system contained units.

Examples of the ecological riscs assessment

Examples of the ecological risk assesmentfor the development of wind energy in Montana (USA) is the work [33]. Considered in detail the problem of influence of wind plants on biodiversity

(in the first place --‐ on endemic bird family, the family of migratory birds, inhabitants of the marsh--‐ es, wildlife) in the interests of energy companies, the public and legislative restrictions. In addition, attention is paid to landscape diversity, cultural traditions and aesthetic issues.

An example of a qualitative approach to the assessment of the regional ecological risk can serve as a publication [34]. The evaluation framework included four main stages: identifying the source of risk (common mosquitofish, Gambusia affinis), identifying risk objects (endpoints), which were classified as local minnow and some other species, assessing the impact on the environment from the risk objects mosquitofish and finally proper risk assessment based on the results of the second and third phases. To quantify the risk assessment applied rank according to official guide--‐ lines state bodies (primarily --‐ directives USOSTP (United States Office of Science Technology and Policy)). Ordnance Survey mapping the distribution of risks was carried out using ArcGIS 9.2.

Manuals

As already noted, the methodology of risk analysis and management in procedural terms is sufficiently well developed. This methodology is reflected in the official leadership of the Agency for Environmental Protection in different countries. An example of environmental risk assessment based on the deterministic approach provides guidance Agency U.S. Environmental Protection Agency [35]. If there is a sufficient amount of data can be probabilistic approach to use of the ex--‐ posure and the effect produced. In the simplest form of probabilistic risk assessment in the inter--‐ pretation is the probability of exceeding the RQ units. However, probabilistic analysis can be used and shared sensitivity distribution type and concentration of environmentally hazardous agent.

By the same token built leadership of the European Agency for the Environment (The Euro--‐ pean Environment Agency, EEA) [ 36] and the domestic standard [ 37] (in the latter, risk means the combination of the probability of an event and its consequences , according to [ 38]). Guidelines for the ecological risk assessment in Ohio (USA ) with a detailed description of all the steps and prepared forms to fill observations, calculations and analysis provided in [39]. Methodological ba--‐ sis for environmental risk assessment guidelines are EPA 540 --‐R--‐ 97 --‐006 and EPA 630 --‐R--‐ 95 --‐002F Agency U.S. Environmental Protection Agency .

In the final version of the guide Canada's ecological risk assessment [40] noted that the probabilistic approach provides accurate and realistic estimates, which are unattainable for de--‐ terministic methods and, moreover, allows to take into account the cumulative effect of multiple sources of uncertainty. At the same time, the application of the probabilistic approach should be performed in cases where it is necessary and possible, since the purpose of risk assessment is translating complex scientific information in an accessible format to decision--‐makers.

According to the guidelines of the national public authority of Ireland, responsible for en--‐ suring the safety and health (The Health and Safety Authority) [41], a measure of risk based on es--‐ timates of the possibility (likelihood, plausibility) of damage (harm), the hazard level (degree of impact on health) and the number of people who could be affected by exposure to risk factors. Risk assessment of the potential threats include a requirement for employers.

This guide [42] use the concept of the risk as a combination of the probability (frequency) of a specific threat and the magnitude of the impacts of this threat. In quantitative terms, the risk --‐ is the product of the probability value implications on (low loss) while the probability of an integral range is applied from zero to 5 (by unit) as well impacts calibrated value (also in integers) from ze--‐ ro to 25 (in 5 units). In addition, the authors consider the possibility of reducing risk through the use of preventive measures, and the reduced risk is calculated as the quotient of the risk factors on the degree of the risk reduction (which also takes integer values from 1 to 5 in 1).

Problems of the assessment of the ecological riscs

The disadvantages of the traditional approach of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) The au--‐ thors of [43] relate primarily addressing risk assessment to one or a small number of impacts (chemical) agents on a limited number of target audiences. Approach suggested by the authors of the ecological risk assessment of the regional scale (Regional--‐Scale Risk Assessment) is focused on large areas with a large number of the sources of exposure and exposure to multiple objects. This approach is based on the model of the relative risk (Relative Risk Model, RRM). The main differ--‐ ence between the proposed approach is to construct a generalized map of the region, taking into account the characteristics (including animal habitats vulnerable ecosystems) bio resources devel--‐ opment of the region and the interests of the various technological/political systems, followed by separation of homogeneous zones and construction of the conceptual model (conceptual model) region. A conceptual model is constructed each time based on the characteristics of the situation in the region. Relative risks are calculated in a deterministic interpretation based on certain sys--‐ tems exhibiting rank estimations. The main difference between the proposed approach is to con--‐ struct a generalized map of the region, taking into account the characteristics (including animal habitats vulnerable ecosystems). Life and development of the region of interest by various techno--‐ logical/political systems , followed by separation of homogeneous zones and building a conceptual model (conceptual model) in the region. A conceptual model is constructed each time based on the characteristics of the situation in the region. Relative risks are calculated in a deterministic in--‐ terpretation based on certain systems exhibiting rank estimations.

Development of the methodology for the environmental risk assessment faces a number of difficulties that have often fundamental. So, the work [44] is devoted to the problems of definition of population, measurable characteristics of the population, revealing the influence of the impacts on populations, scaling effects, etc. in terms of the environmental risk assessment. Promising are--‐ as of the research the authors of [ 44] is the development of predictive population models, meth--‐ ods for transferring the test results for the individuals on the population, the study of interspecific effects, evaluate the impact of multiple sources (as a whole and for individual risks), the develop--‐ ment of approaches into account the spatial and temporal variability introduced by the impacts to clarify the extent of the risk assessment and the development of approaches to determining the environmental significance of the impacts both on the population and on ekoindikatory (and ap--‐ propriate relationship).

Authors of papers devoted to the analysis of the risk of spread of invasive species and pathogens [45], pay attention to the need for a thorough study, as far as possible, the totality of the relationships of many features that define the conditions of habitat ecological communities, as the main factor in the formation probability of negative impact of aggressive species. It should also pay attention to the state and changes in the meteorological conditions. The authors also calls as possible, not to use the risk ranking as ranking leads to some loss of information (in particular, on the borders of gradation ranks).

The key problem of the ecological risk assessment is the definition of "negative conse--‐ quences" of particular relevance for Arctic conditions. According to the authors of [46], relating to the adverse effects of the environmental terms implies the relation of man to environmental changes, involving concepts such as relevance, priority for the society (individual). Sociological as--‐ pect of negative environmental effects at once, as a rule , takes the concept of environmental risk from a strictly scientific sphere, giving it a quality concept (in other words, immeasurable) charac--‐ ter. In particular cases, an environmental risk can be numerically defined: for example, in [46] for the specific task at environmental risk is the probability of introducing exotic diseases when im--‐ porting animals or animal products. In general, keeping the humanitarian component can be made either legislative (legal) by, or on the basis of the arrangements .

The other problem of the environmental risk assessment applies object instantiation risk. [46] noted that under the facilities usually understand environmental risk or that biological com--‐ ponents of the environment (outside the sphere of human activity), but remains a formidable range of ecological systems to characterize the changes of the biosphere.

The third major problem is the definition of the environmental risk in the target audience, which is focused risk assessment. Classic antagonists --‐ are "conservationists" and "consumers of natural resources".

In 2007, the Agency for Environmental Protection Agency published a report which was submitted to analysis of the environmental risk assessment and identified the development of a methodological framework [47]. The report noted that the development of the environmental risk assessment practices possible by improving the methods and tools in the direction of a more com--‐ prehensive coverage of physical, biological and socio--‐economic aspects of the problems under consideration to make more informed decisions. In particular, we are talking about the spatial and temporal detail, taking into account the complexity of the biological systems and the reaction of the environment on the impact of single or multiple sources.

Development of the environmental risk management seeks to involve the general public, business, conduct dialogue between risk assessors, risk managers and stakeholders (including both environmentalists and the general public). Managerial decision--‐making at the local or regional lev--‐ el should take into account the public interest harmonization, economic needs and environmental risks. Should strive for the greater specialization in formulating requests for the environmental risk assessment, which entails additional requirements to sources of information, the data model is applied. For large, complex risk assessments to pre--‐scientific expertise at the stage of setting zadachi.Osoboe attention must be given the uncertainty inherent in environmental and other in--‐ formation in the risk assessment. Agency recommends iterative approaches as a means to mini--‐ mize uncertainty. The report [47] formulated the requirement analysis of decisions to monitor the adequacy of the recommendations issued and allocated to a particular problem carrying out moni--‐ toring observations and research as a basis for future assessments of environmental risk.

With respect to the probabilistic approach to environmental risk assessment agency notes that the application of the theory of probability to successfully solve problems given the uncer--‐ tainty (in this case, however, it is desirable to have a fairly representative sample). In some cases, when the data are limited, can be very useful application of the Monte Carlo or reasonably select--‐ ed theoretical distributions (Poisson, Gauss, and others). For a posteriori audits of decisions pro--‐ vides substantial assistance Bayesian approach. However, the probabilistic terminology and statis--‐ tical concepts are often poorly perceptible layperson that imposes additional requirements on the interpretation rezultatov.The need to develop statistically valid methods to assess environmental risks as stated in [48] .

The ways of the development

The authors [49] noted an important trend in the development of a methodology for as--‐ sessing the environmental risk, namely the trend towards integration of the methods and ap--‐ proaches to risk assessment. The scope of integration fall extension analysis of the linkages and impacts produced effect, joint consideration of human health and the negative consequences for the ecosystems, involving engineering risks, though, and difficult to forecast, in some cases, may have a dominant role for the emergence of the environmental risks, the joint consideration of multiple kinds of contamination ( the effect of which may be additive or synergistic), consideration of the interaction of the pollution and other factors (eg , geomorphological, hydrological itp), a pooled analysis of the pathways of the pollutants, the multiplicative approach to the selection of the environmental parameters that are relevant for the risk assessment and protection (endpoints in the sense of [50]) multiplicative recipients, total multiplicity of temporal and spatial scales, tak--‐ ing into account the life cycle (for example, chemicals), alternative management decisions, and finally, a set of the social and economic needs .

In the report a number of the scientific committees of the European Commission, intended for public comment prior [51] formulated the main problems and the development of the risk as--‐ sessment procedures. The main drawback of the existing approaches is the low degree of the real--‐ ism of the methods and the models of the risk assessments, which entails considerable uncertain--‐ ty in evaluating the impact of various influences.

In the area of the environmental risk deemed necessary verification and joint consideration of the physical and chemical data, the development of the models of the metabolic pathways for polarized and ionized chemicals and metals, the development of the methods for assessing the impacts of nano materials, development of criteria and protocols for the comparison of monitor--‐ ing data, especially for the products of metabolism and decay, thus necessary to develop ap--‐ proaches to forecasting states of matter with short scales of existence (time), the development of more realistic forecast models (in time and space), as well as models of bioaccumulation of the chemicals terrestrial and aquatic systems, a more detailed description of trophic chains. In particu--‐ lar, an important direction --‐ risk assessment application of genetically modified foods [52].

In the analysis of the consequences of the impacts to the priority directions of the devel--‐ opment of the environmental risk assessment include the development of estimates of variable effects depending on the variety of the spatial and temporal concentrations of the pollutants, the development of the models for the studying the vulnerability of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems to different stressors, a deeper study of the interactions of toxicants and natural environmental factors environment, to increase holistic (trait--‐based) approach to the environmental risk assess--‐ ment, modeling estimates implicit impacts of the stressors, and finally, the development of sto--‐ chastic methods and models as a consequence of increasing complexity estimation procedures.

Accounting of the hydrometeoroligical facts

The policy manual when describing the dangers of the objects of the technical regulation [53] stated that "the action of the biological sources of the risk must take into account the climatic and geographical factors". The manual states that "subject to regulation characteristics affecting... the security of the protected objects, biological effects, explosions, mechanical impacts, fires, in--‐ dustrial hazards, thermal effects, chemical effects, electric shock, and electromagnetic fields, nu--‐ clear and radiological impact".

It seems obvious that meteorological (including and climate) and geographical factors are extremely important for these types of the impacts, as these factors may amplify/attenuate the effect of human impact (see, for example, with respect to a favorable outcome of the incident in the UK sector of the North Sea on oil and gas platform company "Total", which led to the leakage of natural gas in 2012), and in some cases can be a source of the environmental hazards (the clearest example is the disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant as a result of the tsunami).

As a measure of the risk RAND Corporation in a special study related to assessing the U.S. defense capabilities, uses two values: the probability of future threat and the degree of impact on the status of Defense. [54] It is noteworthy that, although the work are just illustrative values of the risk profile for such hazards as natural disasters authors regardless of the chosen strategy (pol--‐ icy package) give the same values. In other words, for any strategy the risk of being subjected to natural disaster as a likely event with the same fixed effects.

Climate, as a fact of the ecological risc

In the article, [ 55 ] it is shown that the climate moisture status affects the degree of the risk of epidemics, and drought and waterlogging affected differently by different regions in China (which, apparently due to numerous additional factors). Climate as an environmental risk factor considered in article [56]. The authors propose an approach to risk assessment on the impact of climate warming retentive structures ecological communities and species for a better understand--‐ ing of the environmental problems associated with climatic changes.

As noted in [57] within the past century air temperature increased in the Netherlands in accordance with the global rise in temperature, except for the last decade, during which the tem--‐ perature rise and a half times higher than the global average temperature increase. This effect is caused by changes in prevailing wind directions. The number of cold days has decreased, and the number of days with high temperatures has increased, particularly in the period from 1975 There has been a trend of increasing mean annual precipitation (especially in the period from October to March, while from April to September, no changes) and the increased number of cases of heavy precipitation. The number of storms for 1962 - 2002 decreased (although the authors believe that the period of observations is insufficient for rigorous conclusions), the sea level along the coast of Denmark grew by an average of 20 cm.

Climatic changes take place in the Arctic, which is not accidentally called "kitchen of the world weather".

Сложные природно-климатические условия морской Арктики являются фактором, ущественно влияющим на безопасное и экономически выгодное освоение ресурсов шельфа и мореплавания в Арктике

Экстремальные погодно-климатические условия Арктики

Особенностями региона являются:

• ^ экстремальные природно-климатические условия, включая постоянный ледяной покров и дрейфующие льды в арктических морях;

^ быстрые климатические изменения;

• > низкая устойчивость экологических систем по отношению к антропогенным воздействиям.

Экстремальные погодно-климатические условия арктической зоны создают значительные риски для морского и речного транспорта, для морских добычных платформ и отгрузочных терминалов, портовой инфраструктуры

Pic. 1. Dmitriev V. G. Hydro--‐meteorological security in the Actic. SPB, 2013.

These climatic changes lead to the observed effects on natural systems and society over the last decade, the water flow in the Rhine increased winter and decreased during the summer season, the river water temperature rises. These changes were tale--‐on state of the environment of the Netherlands: increased migration of plants and animals in a northerly direction, any violation of trophic chains. Reduced fuel Rhine water salinity led to the territory from the inflow of sea--‐ water, which negatively affected the plantations of trees in the central part of the country that are not adapted to high salinity. Climatic changes have affected the water transport system in the country, as well as energy companies. In general, it is evident that climate change is the essence of environmental hazards that requires careful analysis for adaptation measures In a time of global climate change as never becomes actual functioning of the climate monitoring in the Arctic macro--‐ region and scientifically sound assessment of the environmental risks in the development of transport communications here and other socio--‐economic activity.

Система наблюдений: многоцелевая космическая система «Арктика»

Важным мероприятием является создание до 2015 г. первой в мире высокоэллиптической гидрометеорологической многоцелевой космической системы (МКС) «Арктика» для мониторинга обстановки в северных полярных районах в интересах обеспечения безопасности трансарктических перелетов, навигации на СМП, хозяйственной деятельности на арктическом шельфе, а также для изучения климата.

АРКТИКА № 2

АРКТИКА No 1

РОССИЙСКАЯ СПУТНИКОВАЯ ГИДРОМЕТЕОРОЛОГИЧЕСКАЯ СИСТЕМА

МЕТЕОР№2

МЕТЕОР N=3

Океанографическим

ЭЛЕКТРО №2

МЕТЕОР№1

ЭЛЕКТРО №1

Pic. 2. Dmitriev V. G. Hydro--‐meteorological security in the Actic. SPB, 2013.

Sozialization of the risc assesment

Socialization estimation procedures environmental risks, proclaimed as a basic principle of the United Nations [58] initiated the emergence of the new methods designed to involve the gen--‐ eral public in environmental assessment processes. Thus, the authors of [59] propose to assess environmental risks using Dempster--‐Shafer theory, based on the use of trust function (belieffunc--‐ tions) and the likelihood function (plausiblereasoning) [60]

In the report a number of the scientific committees of the European Commission, intended for public comment prior [61], attention is paid to the use of the results of risk assessments in de--‐ cision--‐making processes and business management areas. The most important findings of the re--‐ port include the need to improve the relevance of risk assessments (including environmental and)

in respect of politicians and managers at various levels that can be achieved by strengthening the dialogue between the parties concerned. Since management decisions often lead to a contradic--‐ tion between the use of health and the environment and the financial constraints on economic activity, "relevance" is intended to include the analysis of benefit / cost in the risk assessment.

A similar problem arises in the comparison of impacts on various risk objects, such as hu--‐ mans and ecosystems, which are often incommensurable. To resolve contradictions is proposed as an additional criterion for the inclusion of the notion of preference, which also means the need to integrate risk assessment with the economic (and social) analysis. One consequence of the need to take account of the social factors playing a recommendation to the formation of the conceptual apparatus of the risk assessment in a publicly accessible form.

Examples of this approach is the work of [62, 63]. The latter document applies ranking se--‐ verity of the consequences, as well as the probability of a threat in three gradations: high, medi--‐ um, and light level.

When generating reports on risk assessment recommended increasing the number of pos--‐ sible scenarios of, focus on populations and ecosystems as a whole, with the release if necessary especially sensitive subgroups/species, a clear description of all the uncertainties and non--‐obvious explanation hypotheses.

Additional difficulties arise from the widespread belief that "more than expected damage, the greater the risk" and "risk will be greater, the greater the probability of the hazards".

At first glance assertions seem obvious, but the expected damage can be assessed only af--‐ ter an analysis of all possible hazards, taking into account the probability (frequency) of their oc--‐ currence and the occurrence of damage due to these hazards. For example, the expected loss can be the same for rare events (the probability is small) with large losses (big damage) and for fre--‐ quent events (high probability) with relatively small losses (damage to small). In addition, the above statements are not considered adaptive protection and environmental impact (including meteorological factors).

Personal attitude to the risk is the subject of the special theoretical research (The Value--‐ Belief--‐Norm Theory) under the new environmental paradigm (New Ecological Paradigm) [64, 65].

Conclusions

Analysis of even a small number of publications in the field of the risk assessment leads to the following conclusions. Currently paradigm "risk thinking" becomes an accepted norm. Risk as--‐ sessments in various areas by large teams of the specialists in public and scientific organizations.

There is no doubt the use referred to in Article theoretical concepts and methods in the evaluation of the environmental risks in the Arctic.

The concept of the risk broadly reflects uncertainty about the decisions and, consequently, is invariant to the type of activity and processes. Risk is always a priori, forward--‐looking, so that risk assessment may not be accurate.

Methods for solving particular problems of the risk assessment may be different for differ--‐ ent nature of risk. To date, there is no unified theory of risk and common terminology.

Fundamental difference in the approaches to the risk assessment is the interpretation of the risk as either deterministic values (often expected damage) or as a random variable (the prob--‐ ability distribution of the degree of harm / damage).

Additional difficulties in determining the environmental risk caused by the circumstances that ambiguity and logical contradictions present in such basic concepts as the environment, envi--‐ ronmental hazards (causes environmental risks), environmental risks, harm and damage to the en--‐ vironment.

Probabilistic risk assessment approach is the best guarantee realistic estimates that are un--‐ attainable for deterministic methods and, moreover, allows to take into account the cumulative effect of multiple sources of uncertainty. However, the application of the probabilistic approach requires additional knowledge and data.

In the environmental risk assessment is severely limited by lack of knowledge about the impact of the actions on the objects in the terms of the risk assessment. Requires a systematic ap--‐ proach to data collection (environmental monitoring) and developing better models of functioning of the ecological systems. This approach should be implemented and in monitoring fisheries, bio--‐ diversity of the Arctic environment.

Most developed mathematical apparatus (Actuarial Mathematics) risk assessment in finan--‐ cial activities (primarily in the insurance business). Dissemination of the actuarial methods to as--‐ sess the environmental risk is very promising.

Hydrometeorological (including and climate) and geographical factors are extremely im--‐ portant for different types of impacts on the environment, as these factors may be the cause of environmental risk and/or strengthen/weaken the effect of human impact. Particularly relevant monitoring of the climatic changes in the Arctic.

Since the purpose of thr risk assessment is translating complex scientific information to de--‐ cision makers, there is a need to form the conceptual apparatus of the risk assessment, including with respect to the Arctic, publicly accessible form.