Glaucoma incidence analysis and prognosis in adult population of Bashkortostan Republic

Purpose: to analyze the general and primary incidence of glaucoma in the adult population in the Republic of Bashkortostan over the 2010-2017 period; make a medium-term forecast for five years. Material and Methods. The analyzed data was based on official statistics of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation over the 2010-2017 period. The level of general and primary incidence per 100 thousand population was estimated; the five-year forecast for glaucoma incidence was simulated using mathematical modeling. Results. The Republic of Bashkortostan had the highest rate of general and primary glaucoma incidence in the adult population as compared with the incidence rate in the Russian Federation. The Republic of Bashkortostan ranks first in the absolute number of patient with glaucoma and fourth ranks in general incidence per 100 thousand comparing with Volga Federal District data. The level of general glaucoma incidence in the adult population increased by 23.0% over the 2010-2017 period and primary incidence - by 47.0%. The five-year simulated forecast predicts possible further growth of general and primary glaucoma incidence in the republic by 2022. Conclusion. The performed analysis and simulated forecast of general and primary glaucoma incidence for the adult population in the Republic of Bashkortostan show growth trends.