Analysis and forecasting of the resort and recreational complex development in Krasnodar krai

The study of trends in the development of resort and recreational complex of the Krasnodar Krai seems topical. The article analyzes the current state of the tourism industry in the region. Such economic and statistical indicators as the share of gross added value of the tourism industry in the gross regional product, the dynamics of tourist flow for the period 2015-2021, the number of accommodation facilities, the structure of paid services, the volume of seasonal and year-round accommodation facilities are assessed. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that it is necessary to forecast the indicators of the tourism industry in order to make high-quality management decisions. The Holt - Winters triple exponential smoothing method was chosen as a forecasting tool, on the basis of which the income forecast of collective accommodation facilities for four quarters was compiled. The accuracy of the forecast is evaluated. It is concluded that the model demonstrates good results and can be used to solve the problems of planning and forecasting of the indicator in question.