Analysis of forecast opportunities of econometric models

Using medium-term forecasting models makes it possible to make effective management decisions. The constructed econometric model describes the regularities between the yield of winter wheat and the average monthly temperatures of May from 1991-2015. As forecast quality criteria, the average value of the forecast error was used, the value of the relative replacement indicator of the forecast. Their calculations show that the proposed model can be used as a model for adapting the production of winter wheat to climate change, makes it possible to determine the yield forecast with high accuracy.