Анализ влияния финансовых индикаторов на экономическое развитие Demmark за 1999 - 2015 годы

Denmark has a diverse, mixed economy It relies heavily on human resources, but not exclusively, as there are a few significant and valuable natural resources available, including mature oil and gas wells in the North Sea. Cooperatives form a large part of some sectors, be it in housing, agriculture or retail. Foundations play a large role as owners of private sector companies. As of January 2015 the unemployment rate is at 6.2%, which is below the Euro Area average of 11.2% .[11] As of 28 February 2014 Denmark is among the countries with the highest credit ratings.

Denmark's main exports are: industrial production/manufactured goods 73.3% (of which machinery and instruments were 21.4%, and fuels, chemicals, etc. 26%); agricultural products and others for consumption 18.7% (in 2009 meat and meat products were 5.5% of total export; fish and fish products 2.9%). Denmark is a net exporter of food and energy and since has the 1990s balance of payments surplus. The total value of service and merchandise exports in 2013 amounted to 54% of GDP, and imports in 2013 amounted to 49% of GDP. The US is Denmark's largest non-European trading partner, accounting for around 5% of total Danish merchandise trade. Aircraft, computers, machinery, and instruments are among the major US exports to Denmark. Among major Danish exports to the U.S. are industrial machinery, chemical products, furniture, pharmaceuticals, Lego and canned ham and pork.

Denmark has a high living standards but slow growth, new structural reforms to improve the balance between inclusiveness and work incentives needed, current monetary conditions call for more action in prudential policy

In given paper the following indicators were used:

• •    GDP at purchaser's prices - the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products.

• •    Foreign direct investment is the sum of equity capital, reinvestment of earnings, and other capital.

• •    Import is good or services brought into a jurisdiction, especially across a national border, from an external source

• •    Export is all goods and services shipped to another country for future sale or trade

• •    Official exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another. It is also regarded as the value of one country’s currency in relation to another currency. In given report exchange rate of Danish krone to US dollar is used

In research GDP is an endogenous (internal) variable because it is dependent and it can be calculated by using different factors and indicators which have influence on it. This variable will be explained by the econometric model. Export, Import, FDI, Exchange rate are exogenous (external) variables, because they will explain the internal variable Y-GDP.

According to the results the estimated model is following:

Y=-633844346167,64+0,61*X1+1,76*X2+120892307*X3+7238994675*X4

Where:

X1-Export

X2-Impot

X3-FDI

X4-Exchange rate

The interpretation of the results is following:

• 1.    When export increases by 1, GDP increases by 0,61 and vice versa; when import increases by 1, GDP rise by 1,76 and etc. We can see the weights of variables in GDP.

• 2.    Coefficient of determination R² is 0,99, 99% of total deviation of inflation is explained by the variation of variables. It means that value of R² reliable indicator and shows significant correlation.

• 3.    According to the F-test, F = 1718 > Fcr = 3, There is a significant linear effect between variables and GDP and our model is correctly specified.¹

• 4.    T-test

According to the T-test not all t-calculated is higher than t-crit therefore, not all independent variables show significant effect to the dependent variable. Import shows the largest influence on GDP, it can be described as services imported are used to produce goods and services for nation consumption. Also Exchange rate and import shows s significant affect because different exchange rate influence on import price that, in turn, influence on GDP.

• ¹    Трегуб, И.В. Математические модели динамики экономических систем : моногр. — М. : Финакадемия, 2009 .— 118 с.