Analysis of mutual tourism flows between Russia and the European Union

The study is carried out on the basis of processing of statistical information from Russian and foreign sources for 2008–2017. Empirical methods, such as observations, comparisons, monitoring, and statistical methods, such as indices, groupings, correlation and regression analysis are the base of the study. The article is focused on the outbound and inbound tourist flow of Russia and EU countries, and aimed to reveal the dynamics of these flows and to assessm the factors influencing them. As a result of the study, the author has determined the seasonality indices of outbound and inbound flows for individual countries and has revealed high volatility of outbound tourist flow and low inbound flow. Evaluation of the influence of various factors on tourist flows is carried out on the basis of a multiple regression model. The population size and income, the nominal euro rate and sanctions are used as exogenous variables in the model. The quality of the models is evaluated by the degree of approximation (R2), Fisher criteria and Student's t-statistics. The hypothesis about the direct connection of the tourist flow with the population and their incomes and the reverse with the currency rate and sanctions has been confirmed. The study has revealed a statistically significant relationship of tourist flow with income and the euro exchange rate and not significant with population size and sanctions. There is a high elasticity of outbound tourist flow by income and the euro exchange rate, and high elasticity of the inbound flow by income and the euro exchange rate. The results of the article may be useful for the study of other regions and areas of tourism.