China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Evolution, opportunities, contradictions

Over the past two decades, there has been a transformation of global economic space (Minakir, 2022). There is a gradual shift in economic growth centers from the West to the East, and Asian countries are characterized by trade flows concentration and the rapid development of transport infrastructure. The driving force of this process is China, which is demonstrating megaprojects to the world: completion of a network of highspeed railways connecting 18 provinces within eight-hour’s travel; construction of Grand Canal combining five river systems of China (Aritua et al., 2020; Aritua et al., 2022).

One of the most ambitious ideas is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in Astana (Kazakhstan) in 20131. The basic principles, structure, priorities and mechanisms of cooperation under the BRI were formulated later, in 2015.

The BRI project promises to transform economic and strategic relations for much of Central Asia and the Middle East. Initially, it was expected that the BRI would unite about 70 countries, which together would account for up to 65% of the world’s population and a third of global GDP. It was assumed that the development of trade and investment attraction would increase income growth in the countries located along the corridors of the BRI. It was thought that the implementation of the BRI project would reduce travel time along economic corridors by 12%, increase trade volume from 3 to 10%, lift 7.6 million people out of extreme poverty and 32 million people out of moderate poverty2. China’s government spending on the implementation of the BRI is expected to exceed 1 trillion US dollars in total (Nedopil, 2025). It is believed that the successful use of the Initiative will accelerate the process of transition from the unipolar world that existed after 1991 to a multipolar world (Siddiqui, 2019).

Twelve years have passed since the announcement of the BRI. At the moment, it is difficult to measure the achievements of the Initiative, since the economies of the participating countries are at different levels of development. Nevertheless, while some researchers see new opportunities in the implementation of the Initiative for developing trade relations, mutually beneficial cooperation, and improving the well-being of the population (Yuan, 2014; Lam et al., 2018; Sun et al., 2022), others note that this Initiative should be treated with great caution, since the number of underestimated risks may significantly exceed the number of obvious benefits (Zhang, 2015; Garlick, 2017; Comolli, Rose, 2021).

It seems that at this stage, the identification of inconsistencies between the current and declared state of affairs in the implementation of the China’s Belt and Road Initiative remains a scientific challenge. Therefore, the aim of the study is to identify the main periods when the basic objectives of the BRI were reformulated and there were changes in the geographic scope, participation format and investment vehicles. According to the authors, this approach allows assessing the importance of the BRI in the currently changing political and economic conditions of the world order.

Research data and methods

The methodological basis of the work is various research methods: analytical, comparative, descriptive, statistical, expert and cartographic. The focus is on the transport corridor BRI projects, their origin, status and development prospects. The study period is 2013–2025. The analyzed data include secondary data from government and department statistics, regulatory and analytical documents taken from official reports and websites of the World Bank Group (WBG), Financial Inclusion Support Framework (FISF), Belt and Road Initiative International Green Development Coalition (BRIGC), China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China International Development Cooperation Agency (CIDCA), Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), Great Tumangan Initiative (GTI).

The significance and evolution of the Belt and Road Initiative

Since the beginning of the 21st century, after joining the World Trade Organization, China has been actively integrating into the global economy. Chinese companies have focused on increasing their own geopolitical importance by expanding foreign direct investment in both developed and developing countries (Izotov, 2024). China’s development was based on the following principles: “Big powers are the key; China’s periphery is the priority; developing countries are the foundation; multilateral platforms are the stage” (Zeng, 2017). To implement these principles, in the early 2010s, the China’s government put forward several initiatives to find, build and promote a new model of international cooperation and development, the most significant of which was the Belt and Road Initiative.

In general, the BRI is a long-term strategy for transcontinental development based on transport corridors consisting of two components – the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st century Maritime Silk Road. It is worth noting that the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt unites six land transport corridors, and the 21st century Maritime Silk Road has three maritime transport corridors.

Despite the fact that a huge number of works have been written about the Initiative, many issues remain unclear: there is no complete list of announced projects, and the criteria for projects being classified as BRI have not been published. There is also confusion in determining projects initiated before 2013 and subsequently included in this Initiative, and projects initiated under the BRI. We will try to describe the evolution of the strategy of this Initiative and its main criteria.

An analysis of the development of China’s relations with surrounding countries during the work on the Initiative in 2013–2025 allows us to identify three stages, differing in the global reach, variability of declared objectives, financial instruments for implementation and approaches to the development of infrastructure projects.

The general goal of the BRI, postulated at the initial stage of its establishment3 and actually remaining unchanged throughout its implementation, is to improve transport links and increase cooperation between countries of several continents.

The achievement of the general goal implies reaching a number of specific sub-goals and local objectives, which are characterized by continuity and extension of their scope at the second and third stages of the BRI implementation ( Tab. 1 ).

The first stage (2013–2015) of the BRI development actually focused on building business relations between China and its surrounding peripheral countries. At that time, the Initiative was focused on achieving five main objectives, which retained their significance for the entire period of its implementation:

– coordinating policy: it was declared that the countries located along the BRI corridors would jointly work on development strategies and plans with equal opportunities, and take measures to promote international or interregional cooperation to resolve issues arising from such cross-country coordination;

– connectivity of objects: it was supposed to develop a single transport network connecting China with other parts of Asia, Europe and Africa;

– facilitating unimpeded trade: it was supposed to simplify investment and trade procedures, reduce investment and trade constraints, and promote regional economic integration;

– increasing financial cooperation: diversification of transactions in local currency and currency exchange in trade and investments between the participating countries, the increase of multilateral and bilateral financial cooperation, and the reduction of financial risks through regional agreements;

– increasing social and cultural exchanges, promoting exchange and dialogue between different cultures in order to create the foundation for the development of regional cooperation.

Funding of the Initiative. In order to increase the investment component, the Chinese Government established the Silk Road Fund in 2014 with an initial contribution of 200 million US dollars (Zhang et al., 2018). In 2015, the Asian Infrastructure

Investment Bank (1.73 billion US dollars) was established as a multilateral funding institution with a special focus on financing infrastructure projects and promoting sustainable development in Asia and beyond (Gong, 2018). In September of the same year, the Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development was established with an initial contribution of 2 billion US dollars to support developing countries4. Existing banks were also involved in the promotion and implementation of BRI projects. For example, the China Development Bank supports 400 projects in 37 countries totaling 110 billion US dollars.

Infrastructure projects. The basis for the development of transport infrastructure at the first stage was the principle of creating a skeleton of transport communications by bridging infrastructure gaps and developing industrial clusters.

During this period, the creation of 64 industrial clusters was initiated. Construction of the transport infrastructure of the New Eurasian Land Bridge, China – Central Asia – West Asia, and China – Pakistan economic corridors has begun. The emphasis was on the construction of railways and highways between the main economic centers (Huut – Tavantolgoi – Gashuunsukhait in Mongolia, Khorgos – Zhetigen in Kazakhstan, Bichig – Chifeng in China).

During the first period of the BRI implementation, the emphasis was put on infrastructure projects in Africa, announced in the white paper “China – Africa Economic and Trade Coope-ration”5. The African railway network development

Table 1. Characteristics of the main stages of the development of the Belt and Road Initiative

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Geographic scope. At the first stage, the main goal of the Initiative was to build relationships between China and its peripheral countries. During the first stage, contacts were also formed with the countries of Africa, Central Asia and Eastern Europe. By 2016, 27 countries with a total population of 2.3 billion people had become participants in the BRI (Fig. 1).

The second stage (2016–2020) of the BRI development provided for the extension of the scope of China’s territorial cooperation with the countries of Africa, Southeast Asia, Europe and Latin America. Cooperation under the Initiative has moved from the “outline” stage to the “detailed implementation” stage. It was the time of carrying out the state program “Made in China – 2025”, adopted in 2015, which aimed to modernize the manufacturing industry based on the imperatives of the “fourth industrial revolution” and disposition of the old production facilities (Liu, Avdokushin, 2019).

In 2017, the “Action Plan on Belt and Road Cooperation in Scientific and Technological Innovation” was published, aimed at increasing the capacity for innovation in participating countries through measures such as joint research, technology transfer, exchanges in science and technology, as well as cooperation between high-tech industrial parks6. In order to synchronize the development plans of the countries of the Maritime Silk Road, the Vision for Maritime Cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative was published in the same year7.

In 2018, the white paper “China’s Arctic Policy”8 postulated the need to organize a scientific study of navigation routes, create land monitoring stations, conduct research on climate and environmental changes in the Arctic, and provide navigation forecasting services.

Infrastructure projects. At the second stage of the implementation of the BRI, the basis for infrastructure development was the principle of accelerated development of transport infrastructure facilities, as well as sustainable transport

Figure 1. Main stages of the territorial expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative

Countries not signed the BRI cooperation memorandum development, when the industry respects the economic, environmental and social aspects of development.

The key projects of this period are the construction and modernization of railways and highways of the economic corridors “New Eurasian Continental Bridge Corridor”, “China – Central Asia – West Asia”, “China – Myanmar – Bangladesh – India”. The modernization of the economic corridor “New Eurasian Continental Bridge” has allowed creating a traditional railway route between China and Europe. In 2017, the railway over 480 km was launched, connecting the largest port of East Africa, Mombasa, with the capital of Kenya, Nairobi.

Among the significant projects for Russia and China related to the China –Arctic Ocean – Europe maritime corridor, the most representative example of cooperation between the two countries is the Yamal liquefied natural gas (LNG) project (Leonov, 2021). In this project of the Russian gas benchmark company PAO NOVATEK, the Chinese side owns almost a third of the 27 billion-dollar project: Silk Road Fund – 9.9%, China National Petroleum – 20%11.

Geographic scope. In 2017, the Belt and Road Initiative under the 21st century Maritime Silk Road was extended to Latin America. In total, 108 countries joined the Initiative in the period 2016– 2020, and the total number of participating countries was 135 with a total population of over 4.4 billion people.

At the third stage (2021–2025), the BRI is actually turning from an Asian development strategy into an initiative for all countries of the world. Such an increase in the number of participating countries, as well as an extended block of strategic goals of the Initiative, causes Chinese scientists to express concerns: “when ‘one belt one road’ includes everything, it becomes nothing” (Zeng, 2017).

At the third stage, the main documents regulating goals of the project were the white paper “China’s International Development Cooperation in the New Era”12 and the white paper “The Belt and Road Initiative: A Key Pillar of the Global Community of Shared Future”13, which postulated ways to eliminate the root causes and obstacles hindering the development of member countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed new challenges to the BRI. The changes that occurred were to a great extent related to disruptions in supply chains (Zaostrovskikh, 2025). The BRI efforts were directed toward the development of the Digital Silk Road, Green Silk Road and Silk Road of Health. The China’s BRI, which was previously characterized as a transport and logistical project, currently involves increasing cooperation between the participating countries in the digital economy and innovative development through interaction under the Digital Silk Road.

The construction of the spatial information corridor under the Initiative has been a huge success. China has built teleports connecting South Asia, Africa, Europe and America. Data obtained from Earth remote sensing satellites as part of satellite monitoring is widely used in many countries and regions. The “BeiDou” satellite-based navigation system provides comprehensive services for high-speed railway link “China – Europe”, and is widely used in other fields14.

Funding of the Initiative. In 2020, Chinese state-owned banks implemented programs to support projects affected by COVID-19, and after a recession in the first half of 2020, direct nonfinancial investments in BRI countries increased sharply in the second half of the year (Comolli, Rose, 2021).

In general, China’s funding institutions provide significant assistance in construction and modernization of the infrastructure required under the Initiative ( Tab. 2 ).

The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China is promoting a mechanism for regular interbank cooperation under the BRI. In addition, specialized banks and regional funds have been established to support major foreign infrastructure projects under the BRI. So, a reliable network has been created for Chinese capital and companies that invest abroad, using their advantages such as financial power, infrastructure improvements and increasing production capacity. These initiatives will undoubtedly have a significant impact on the global economic pattern.

Infrastructure projects. The infrastructure improvement at the third stage of the BRI development was based on the principle of creating safe transport routes that meet modern environmental, economic and social requirements.

A section of the “New Eurasian Continental Bridge” corridor, the “Hungary – Serbia – Belgrade – Novi Sad” railway in Serbia, was launched in 2022, and track laying began on the “Budapest – Kelebia” section in Hungary. The construction of the highways “Western Europe – Western China” and “Smokovac — Matesevo” in Montenegro has been finished15.

Table 2. Funding of infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative by China’s institutions

Institution Date of establishment Allocation of funds for infrastructure projects China Development Bank (CDB) 1994 Supported 400 projects in 37 countries totaling 110 billion US dollars Export-Import Bank of China (CHEXIM) 1994 Supported over 1000 projects in 49 countries totaling 80 billion US dollars Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) 1984 Funded 212 projects totaling 67.4 billion US dollars Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) 2014 Approved 75 projects totaling 22 billion US dollars Silk Road Fund (SRF) 2014 Provided a 200 million US dollars loan Institute of South-South Cooperation and Development (ISSCAD) 2015 Provided loans to support developing countries (2 billion US dollars) Green Finance Center (FISF) 2018 Funded 262 “green” projects totaling over 300 billion US dollars China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) 2023 Issued BRI-oriented bonds totaling 52.72 billion yuan Compiled based on: (Agirman, Osman, 2022); The WEB of Transport Corridors in South Asia. The World Bank, 2018. DOI: ; The belt and road initiative for seamless connectivity and sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific region. ESCAP U.N. 2021; The Belt and Road Initiative: A Key Pillar of the Global Community of Shared Future. The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China. 10.11.23. Available at: (accessed: March 03, 2025).

The Thar Coal Block-I thermal power station, coal-fired power station and 720 MW Karot hydropower plant were built and launched as part of the “China – Pakistan” economic corridor. Their construction has given a significant boost to the development of the local economy and provided Pakistan with clean and cheap energy. The Rashakai special economic zone (Pakistan) has reached the stage of comprehensive development16.

The “China – Laos” railway has improved the reliability of transportation along the “China – Indo-China Peninsula” economic corridor. The “Jakarta – Bandung” high-speed railway has allowed reaching a service speed of 350 km/h. The first stage of the “China – Thailand” railway construction has begun17.

Although Russia is not directly involved in the BRI, there is interaction on the basis of a Joint Statement by Russia and China “On cooperation on the joint construction of the Eurasian Economic Union and the Silk Road Economic Belt”18. As part of this Statement, “Heihe – Blagoveshchensk”19 highway bridge and “Tongji-ang – Nizhneleninskoye”20 railway bridge, which connect China and Russia, have opened to freight traffic. The “China – Russia” east-route gas pipeline has been fully connected. China, Russia and Mongolia have officially launched a feasibility study on the upgrading and development of the central-route railway of the China – Mongolia – Russia economic corridor21.

Currently, the China – Europe railway express serves more than 120 cities in China and 227 cities in 25 European countries, with 86 routes passing through the main regions of Eurasia at speed of up to 120 km/h²². The company’s route network covers the entire Eurasian continent. The express travels 1,300 km per day and arrives from China to Europe within 12 days with absolute punctuality. Customers choose this type of freight delivery because railway express is three times faster than sea transportation and eight times cheaper than air transportation²³. By the end of 2024, the total volume of transportation by the China – Europe railway express exceeded 17.5 thousand trains ( Fig. 2 ), with almost 11 million containers in twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) and more than 50 thousand types of goods totaling more than 420 billion US dollars having been transported²⁴.

Under the BRI, cooperation on navigation between the ports of the member countries is expanding, and the efficiency of freight traffic has increased significantly. In 2016, the China’s COSCO Shipping company acquired a controlling stake in the Piraeus Port, the largest of Greece,

Figure 2. Transportation of containers with the “China – Europe” railway, number of trains

«^^мWest routes                ^^^^^ East routes

Source: Belt and Road Initiative. Available at: located in a strategic location between the Asian and European continents. 660 million US dollars investments in Piraeus Port led to an increase in the volume of container transshipment (2023 – 5 million TEU containers), which made it the leading port in the Mediterranean region25.

As part of the BRI, China is also increasing transport and economic relations with African countries. Built by the China Harbor Engineering Company Ltd in 2020–2022, the Lekki deep sea port in the economic center of Nigeria, Lagos, has become the country’s largest modern sea port and one of the largest in Central and West Africa.

The port is designed to handle 1.2 million standard containers per year26.

By 2024, the 21st century Maritime Silk Road network included 117 ports in 43 countries. In addition, more than 300 well-known Chinese and international shipping companies, port enterprises and think tanks, among other organizations, have joined the Silk Road Maritime association27.

Since 2015, the Ningbo Shipping Exchange has been calculating China’s trade indices with countries along the Maritime Silk Road based on monthly data from the customs service on import and export28.

Figure 3. China’s trade indices with countries under the Maritime Silk Road in 2015 constant prices

^^^мImport trade index

■■■ ж Export trade index

ЖМЖ Export and import trade index

Source: Belt and Road. Available at:

In December 2024, the trade index (export and import trade) between China and countries along the Maritime Silk Road stood at 198 points, which is 88.5 points higher than in January 2016 ( Fig. 3 ).

The increase in this indicator over a nine-year period was mainly provided by the export trade index, which increased by 107.3 points from January 2016 to 232.6 points in December 2024. The import trade index in December 2024 amounted to 162.8 points, which is 69.4 points higher than in January 2016.

An analysis of the data in Figure 3 shows that during the implementation of the BRI, the trade indices of the Maritime Silk Road have increased dramatically. It should be noted and is shown above that in the period under review growth was also observed in the volume of container overland transportation by China – Europe trains.

Geographic scope. At the third stage, the idea of the BRI was actually transformed into an open agreement any country can participate in. Under the Initiative, tangible macroeconomic results were achieved: in 2025, 147 countries and 32 international organizations participated in the BRI and signed more than 200 documents and cooperation agreements with China (Nedopil, 2025). It is significant that 116 of the 147 participating countries are not located directly along the corridors of the BRI, nevertheless they are actively cooperating on modernization and construction of transport infrastructure facilities. Such a high attractiveness of the Initiative for the international community is due to the demonstration by the Chinese government of its financial viability, confirmed by real projects.

Discussion

It is important that during the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, countries have developed different positions regarding the effectiveness of participation in it.

While developing countries have a predominantly positive attitude toward this Initiative and are willing participants, advanced economies tend to take a neutral or negative position. One of the most dynamically integrating regions, in terms of participation in the BRI, is Africa or, more precisely, the countries located on the east coast: Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Djibouti. The major powers have either rejected the BRI or are neutral (Zhang et al., 2018). At the moment, Russia has also not confirmed the memorandum on cooperation with China under the BRI, but expresses support and synchronizes its own integration and transport projects, taking into account China’s actions in the long term, considering options for “jointing” its projects with the China’s Initiative (Lukin, 2021). Some countries have withdrawn from the Chinese Initiative relatively recently: Panama29 in 2025 in response to the threat from the United States, which announced resistance to the increased control over the Panama Canal by China under the BRI, Italy30 in 2023 due to political pressure from the G7 countries.

The BRI members are primarily developing countries. Accordingly, they consider the creation of an appropriate infrastructure as a top priority for global future development under this Initiative.

Geopolitical challenges are the key issue somehow affecting the implementation of the BRI. For example, as noted in the paper (Sarker et al., 2018), relations between India and Pakistan, which are tense due to the Kashmir conflict, at the same time not hinder the development of the China – Pakistan economic corridor, since the latter passes through Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. The other reason for the Sino-Indian confrontation and India’s refusal to become a BRI member is India’s dissatisfaction with China’s growing dominance in Southeast and South Asia (Rahman, 2022). The disagreements between Russia and Ukraine, the civil wars in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan also do not accelerate the implementation of the BRI. Some partner countries suffer from political instability, sanctions, corruption, expropriation, and inefficiency, which affect the success of initiatives and specific projects under the BRI (Sarker et al., 2018).

As for possible concerns of the BRI member countries, some of them include potential loss of control over national strategic assets31, threats of an influx of labor from China, use of less environmentally friendly technology and increased financial dependence on China, as well as sociopolitical problems (Comolli, Rose, 2021).

Some researchers note that in the context of China’s growing economy and the recession in the United States, competition between the United

States and China may intensify, leading to an escalation of the economic and trade conflict between them (Siddiqui, 2019). In fact, the features of the trade war caused by the attempts of the US President D. Trump’s plans to impose protective tariffs and other restrictive economic and trade measures against a large number of countries have been observed since the beginning of 2025. Such US activities artificially disrupt previously established global industrial chains, violate market-oriented free trade rules, undermine the economic development of various countries, and, on the whole, damage the idea of economic globalization32.

Conclusion

In the course of the research, the thesis was confirmed that the China’s Belt and Road Initiative is ambitious, and it has a wide and increasing geographic scope, actually extending to all areas of development in the vast majority of countries around the world through two megaprojects: Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st century Maritime Silk Road.

An analysis of the development of China’s relations with surrounding countries during the BRI implementation in 2013–2025 allowed us to identify three stages, differing in the geographic scope, variability of declared objectives, financial instruments for implementation and approaches to the development of infrastructure projects.

The paper shows that the general goal of the BRI, postulated at the first stage of the project, which is to improve transport links and increase cooperation between countries, remains virtually unchanged throughout the implementation of this Initiative, but requires setting and achieving a number of specific interrelated sub-goals and resolving local issues at the second and third stages.

The BRI members are mainly developing countries, respectively, the creation of an appro- priate infrastructure is the priority for future global development under the Initiative. Given its wide geographic scope and large economic scale, the BRI is an important event in the development of a new network of global transport corridors and has great potential for growth not only in China, but also in a number of participating countries.

For instance, the countries of Central Asia, which act as a kind of gateway for China’s diversified overland routes to Western markets, are of primary importance for the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt33. Similarly, six countries and their sea ports are key for the Maritime Silk Road34. In the future, they may become hub ports of the second level of the global maritime highway. The use of these corridors will allow creating a multimodal transport infrastructure that will link industrial clusters into one production and distribution chain.

In the future, with the construction of a railway from Rovaniemi (Finland) to Kirkenes (Norway)35 and the Helsinki – Tallinn tunnel36 as well as the construction of a railway connecting the port of Piraeus (Greece) with Central and Eastern Europe, a single transport ring may be created under the BRI. It will not only connect the Mediterranean Sea with the Arctic Ocean, but also provide access to the Pacific and Indian oceans for Scandinavian and Mediterranean countries.

To conclude, the Belt and Road Initiative can not only change the global economic pattern, but also, if successful, provide China with a central strategic position in the geopolitical space of Asia and the world.