Digital divide in Russia’s regions: Assessment and priorities in the context of achieving national development goals

The persistent spatial differentiation in digitalization levels across Russian regions underscores the urgent need to identify the determinants of the digital divide to inform effective state policy. This study aims to identify and econometrically assess the key determinants shaping this divide across three structural levels—inequality in access, quality of use, and the ability to derive benefits—for three primary stakeholders: households, businesses, and the state. The scientific novelty of this research lies in its comprehensive, panel-data analysis of determinants across these three user groups and its identification of paradoxical relationships within the digitalization adoption. Employing fixed effects models on data from 82 Russian regions for the period 2017–2023, the analysis reveals a stable and significant influence of economic factors on all levels of the digital divide. Specifically, rising Internet service provider (ISP) charges and an increased share of the population in poverty are found to significantly reduce household access and digital activity. For the business sector, however, the analysis uncovers paradoxical relationships, which are likely attributable to the structure of official statistical data. The study also establishes that elderly populations demonstrate high digital activity, potentially as a means to compensate for offline limitations, while satisfaction with digital public services is unexpectedly higher in more depressed regions, a phenomenon explained by adapted expectations. The findings confirm the sector-specific nature of the determinants, necessitating differentiated policy measures. Furthermore, spatial analysis indicates a poor diffusion of innovations from digitalization centers to peripheral regions, highlighting a critical challenge for equitable development.