The cyclicity of black-capped marmot (Marmota camtschatica Doppelmayeri) number in Barguzinsky natural reserve

The article studies the long-term cyclicity of the black-capped marmot population (Marmota camtschatica) on the Barguzin Range. Pattern of population dynamics in large and medium colonies remains stationary, while in small settlements a noticeable negative trend is observed. Visual evaluation of the population fluctuation spectra in high-frequency bands shows their similarity, whereas in the middle and low frequencies there is a wide variety of spectra. Fluctuations in ten-, five- and two-year frequency bands are observed for long term population dynamics of Marmota camtschatica. The results of long-standing marmot counts show that a number of marmots is subject to great annual changes, and their amplification have a cyclicity of three and six years. We give a forecast of changes in number of black-capped marmots in Barguzinsky Reserve for the next five years. According to this forecast, the marmot population will decrease in 2018, and then there will be a gradual ascent by 2021. The observed low population after 2013 is probably a part of large (~ 20-year) cycle. Next increase in the number of marmots is expected only in 10-15 years.