Cluster analysis of the dynamics of the birth rate of fourth and subsequent children in Russian regions

Автор: Kostina Svetlana N., Trynov Aleksandr V.

Журнал: Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast @volnc-esc-en

Рубрика: Social and economic development

Статья в выпуске: 3 т.14, 2021 года.

Бесплатный доступ

The article presents results of the research in the differentiation of Russian subjects by birth rate of fourth and subsequent children, depending on the region's socio-economic development level for the period of 2005-2017. The authors conduct cluster analysis based on Ward's method of time series of 3 groups of indicators, particularly demographic, economic and social, in the regional context. As a result, they identify 6 clusters, describing the situation of Russian subjects, depending on the values of the birth rate of fourth and subsequent children and indicators of socio-economic development of the region for 2005-2017. The study reveals that in the period under review there are two main trends: first, transition of RF subjects from Cluster 1, characterized by sufficiently high values of the birth rate of fourth and subsequent children and low indicators of socio-economic development, to the clusters with a lower value of the coefficient and higher indicators of socio-economic development; second, transition of RF subjects from the clusters with a low birth rate of fourth and subsequent children to the clusters characterized by the increased birth rate against the background of improved socio-economic development. In the current period, it is possible to distinguish the formation of two poles of large families - these are “the poor with many children” regions, in which a high birth rate of fourth and subsequent children is associated with low socio-economic development, and “the rich with many children” regions with high birth rates and a high level of socio-economic development. Between them there are other RF subjects, which are gradually moving away from the pole of “the poor with many children”, but have not approached the pole of “the rich with many children” yet. The novelty of the study lies in the application of the author's approach to the analysis of relationship between large families and socio-economic development of Russian regions in the temporal dimension.

Еще

Birth rate, crude birth rate, birth rate of fourth and subsequent children, cluster analysis, having many children, socioi economic situation, subjects of the russian federation

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/147235413

IDR: 147235413   |   DOI: 10.15838/esc.2021.3.75.14

Список литературы Cluster analysis of the dynamics of the birth rate of fourth and subsequent children in Russian regions

  • Trynov A.V., Kostina S.N., Bannykh G.A. Examination of socio-economic determinants of fertility based on the regional panel data analysis. Ekonomika regiona=Economy of Region, 2020, vol. 16, no. 3, pp. 807–819. DOI: 10.17059/ekon.reg.2020-3-10 (in Russian).
  • Arkhangel'skii V.N. Faktory rozhdaemosti [Fertility Factors]. Moscow: TEIS, 2006. 399 p.
  • Bagirova A.P. Rozhdaemost' i roditel'stvo v Rossii: determinanty i regional'naya differentsiatsiya: monografiya [Fertility and Parenthood in Russia: Determinants and Regional Differentiation: Monograph]. Under general editorship of A.P. Bagirova. Yekaterinburg: Izd-vo Ural. un-ta, 2018. 157 p.
  • Istomina K.S. Impact of indicators on the birth rate in the regions. Vestnik nauki i obrazovaniya= Bulletin of Science and Education, 2015, vol. 4, no. 2 (4), pp. 60–63 (in Russian).
  • Koreva O.V., Boitsova T.E. Analysis and evaluation of the impact of individual factors on the state of the modern demographic situation in the Russian Federation. Vestnik evraziiskoi nauki=The Eurasian Scientific Journal, 2013, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 47–59. (In Russian).
  • Sukneva S.A., Barashkova A.S., Postnikova K.Yu. Birth rate, number of children and family income: trends and relationships. Ekonomicheskie i sotsial'nye peremeny: fakty, tendentsii, prognoz=Economic and Social Changes: Facts, Trends, Forecast, 2020, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 201–213. DOI: 10.15838/esc.2020.2.68.13 (in Russian).
  • Zhuravleva T.L., Gavrilova Ya.A. Analysis of fertility determinants in Russia: What do RLMS data say? Ekonomicheskii zhurnal VShE=HSE Economic Journal, 2017, vol. 21, no. 1, pp. 145–187 (in Russian).
  • Mietule I., Maksymova I., Holikova K. Modern socio-demographic trends affecting the business sector of the economies of Latvia and Ukraine. In: Society. Integration. Education. Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference. 2018. Vol. 6. Pp. 353–365.
  • Boyle P.J., Graham E., Feng Z. Contextualising Demography: The Significance of Local Clusters of Fertility in Scotland. Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, 2007. DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2007-036
  • Salvini M.S., Gabrielli G., Paterno A., Corazziari I. Demographic trends in developing countries: convergence or divergence processes? In: Corazziar Disia Working Paper. 2015. No. 03. Available at: https://local.disia.unifi.it/wp_disia/2015/wp_disia_2 (accessed: November 10, 2020).
  • Jurun E., Ujević I. A cluster analysis of Croatian counties as the base for an active demographic policy. Croatian Operational Research Review, 2017, vol. 8, no. 1, pp. 221–236. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17535/crorr.2017.0014. Available at: https://hrcak.srce.hr/181659
  • Pénzes J., Pásztor I.Z., Tátrai P. Demographic processes in developmentally peripheral areas of Hungary. Stanovnistvo, 2015, vol. 53, no. 2, pp. 87–111. DOI: 10.2298/STNV1502087P
  • Yüceşahin M., Tulga A. Demographic and social change in the middle East and North Africa: Processes, spatial patterns, and outcomes. Population Horizons, 2017, vol. 14, no. 2, pp. 47–60. DOI:10.1515/pophzn-2017-0003/
  • Petrykina I.N. Cluster analysis of regions of the Central Federal District in terms of human capital development. Vestnik VGU. Seriya: Ekonomika i upravlenie=Proceedings of Voronezh State University. Series: Economics and Management, 2013, no. 1, pp. 72–80 (in Russian).
  • Filipova A.G., Es'kova A.V., Inzartsev A.V. Social potential of a region: Experience of using cluster analysis. Regionologiya=Russian Journal of Regional Studies, 2017, vol. 100, no. 3, pp. 438–455 (in Russian).
  • Kanishchev V.V Cluster analysis of demographic behavior of the rural population of European Russia at the beginning of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century. On raising the question. Ineternum= Ineternum, 2011, no. 1, pp. 43–55 (in Russian).
  • Shubat O.M., Bagirova A.P., Akishev A.A. Methodology for analyzing the demographic potential of Russian regions using fuzzy clustering. Ekonomika regiona=Economy of Region, 2019, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 178–190. DOI: 10.17059/2019-1-14 (in Russian).
  • Golubova T.N., Makhkamova Z.R., Ovsyannikova N.M. Cluster analysis of birth and mortality rates in the Republic of Crimea. Nauchnye vedomosti. Seriya: Meditsina. Farmatsiya=Belgorod State University Scientific bulletin. Medicine. Pharmacy, 2016, vol. 34, no. 12, pp. 88–94 (in Russian).
  • Russkikh T.N., Tinyakova V.I., Stroev S.P. Typologization of Russian regions by efficiency level of health care systems using fuzzy clustering procedures. Uchet i statistika= Accounting and Statistics, 2017, vol. 47, no. 3, pp. 43–52 (in Russian).
  • Dolgodvorova E.V. Cluster analysis: Basic concepts and algorithms. Voprosy nauki i obrazovaniya=Questions of Science and Education, 2018, vol. 19, no. 9, pp. 73–76 (in Russian).
  • Kovanova E.S. Cluster analysis in handling the problem of typology of regions of Russia by level and intensity of internal labor migration. Vestnik NGUEU= Vestnik NSUEM, 2013, no. 4, pp. 166–175 (in Russian).
  • Wijayanto A.W., Purwarianti A., Son L.H. Fuzzy geographically weighted clustering using artificial bee colony: An efficient geo-demographic analysis algorithm and applications to the analysis of crime behavior in population. Appl Intell, 2016, vol. 44, pp. 377–398. DOI:/10.1007/s10489-015-0705-7
  • Le Hoang Son. A novel kernel fuzzy clustering algorithm for geo-demographic analysis. Inf. Sci, 2015, vol. 317, pp. 202–223. DOI: 10.1016/j.ins.2015.04.050
  • Shubat O.M., Shmarova I.V. Cluster Analysis as an Analytical Tool of Population Policy. Ekonomika regiona=Economy of Region, 2017, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 1175–1183 (in Russian).
  • Ilyshev A.M., Bagirova A.P. Factors of reproductive activity of the population: Analysis of regional differentiation. Region: ekonomika i sotsiologiya=Region: Economics and Sociology, 2009, no. 1, pp. 92–110 (in Russian).
  • Tikhomirov N.P., Tikhomirova T.M. Methods of justification for strategies to overcoming demographic crisis in the regions of Russia. Fundamental'nye issledovaniya=Fundamental research, 2020, no. 5, pp. 160–166 (in Russian).
  • Ward J.H. Hierarchical grouping to optimize an objective function. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1963, pp. 236–244.
  • Kostina S.N., Zaitseva E.V. Large families models in modern Russian society: The results of narrative interviews. Sotsiologicheskie issledovaniya=Sociological Studies, 2021, no. 3, pp. 92–102. DOI: 10.31857/S013216250009563-2 (in Russian).
Еще
Статья научная