Demographic drama on the path of perspective development of Russia
Автор: Aganbegyan Abel Gezevich
Журнал: Народонаселение @narodonaselenie
Рубрика: Демография: анализ и прогнозы
Статья в выпуске: 3 (77), 2017 года.
Бесплатный доступ
The article shows deterioration of the socio-demographic situation in Russia during the period of stagnation and recession of 2013-2017 - increase in the number of deaths from 2013 and decline in the number of births from 2015 that resulted in a hundred-thousand depopulation in the first half of 2017. In the coming years up to the 30s years of the 21st century the depopulation will increase due to a sharp decrease in the number of women of child-bearing age with a probable decline in the birth rate by half. At the same time the number of able-bodied population will decrease, according to different forecast versions, by 5-10 million people. In this context the article considers measures for mitigating these negative trends through raising total fertility rate, more significant reduction of mortality and particularly that in working age, raising pensioning age to increase the number of able-bodied population.
Fertility, mortality, depopulation, low, medium and high scenarios of demographic development forecast, able-bodied population and employment, pensioning age
Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/143173438
IDR: 143173438 | DOI: 10.26653/1561-7785-2017-3-1