Demographic Challenges or Why the Demographic Policy of the Far East does not Lead to the Desired Result

Автор: Yury A. Avdeev, Valentina L. Ushakova

Журнал: Уровень жизни населения регионов России @vcugjournal

Рубрика: Демография

Статья в выпуске: 1 т.19, 2023 года.

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The article summarizes the results of a two-year discussion around the topic: how to make the Far East attractive, and stop the outflow of population from the region. The approaches and proposals are analyzed in the articles published on the pages of the journal "Standard of Living of the Population in the Regions of Russia", in which migration issues are discussed mainly, a critical assessment of some provisions in them is given. An analysis of the demographic policy in the Far East, aimed at curbing the outflow of the population by 2020, and increasing the number in 2025, was carried out. It is shown that the achievement of the planned indicators of the Concept is hindered by the rate on population reproduction: stimulation of the birth rate, reduction of mortality, increase in life expectancy. The main reason was revealed: the mass outflow of the population in the 90s deformed the demographic structure, significantly reducing the population of fertile ages, as well as the child population. Therefore, material incentives are assessed as an ineffective way to ensure the achievement of the goal. The results of the analysis of the main demographic processes in the Far East, their regional specifics, indicate that it is unlikely that it will be possible to overcome the steady trend of population decline until the middle of the century. Arguments are given proving that the economic specialization of the macro-region that has developed over the previous decades with a predominance of resource-export industries is the main reason that pushes the population, contributing to the outflow of the population. A fundamentally important conclusion of the article is the need to ensure absolute population growth, the transition from the installation of "savings" to the task of "multiplying" the people. And it is proposed to consider the Far East as a pilot project in solving this national problem.

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Far East, demography, migration, population outflow, demographic policy, development, system approach, targeted planning

Короткий адрес: https://sciup.org/143179684

IDR: 143179684   |   DOI: 10.52180/1999-9836_2023_19_1_1_9_24

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