Demographic development of Russia and Belarus in the 21st century in the context of the introduction of the active longevity concept

The paper presents the results of a comparative analysis of demographic processes in Russia and Belarus in the first 20 years of the 21st century in the context of socio-economic problems dictated by the population aging. The level of demographic aging of both countries indicates the urgency of implementing the concept of active longevity. On the one hand, it will ensure health preservation of the majority of the population and increase the resource potential of the older generation, and their quality of life, on the other. Both Russia and Belarus entered a new wave of depopulation after 2016. Having a similar sex-and-age structure and trends of declining fertility, growth of life expectancy, they will continue to “age” in the future, and with an increase in the depth of old age. As Belarus is characterized by a lower total birth rate (1.39 versus 1.5 in Russia in 2019) and a noticeable decrease in the share of children in the age structure (from 20% in 2000 to 17% in 2020), the risks of “aging from below” are higher for it, primarily due to the demographic burden of the elderly. Using correlation analysis, the authors have identified the classes of mortality causes that have the greatest impact on the transformation of the age structure. In Russia, these are neoplasms and diseases of the circulatory system, in Belarus - diseases of the respiratory system and the circulatory system. Public health promotion, reducing preventable mortality are the tasks of “compensating” for demographic aging of the first stage. In addition to preserving and improving the age structure, the effect of their implementation is the health care up to older ages (measured, for example, by the healthy life expectancy), i.e. the increase of the resource potential of the elderly. This task requires a systematic study which provides for the development and implementation of an up-to-date active longevity concept. The longevity can be achieved by preserving and strengthening the health of each person since birth.