Demographic aging: prerequisites and forecast

The article presents an analysis of the prerequisites for the transformation of the age structure, characterized by a growing proportion of older people. The relevance of the topic lies in the profound impact of demographic aging on society and the economy, which requires attention at the state level. The first part examines changes in the demographic situation in retrospect and the factors, which influenced the intensity of demographic aging (mortality, birth rate, migration). Particular attention is paid to the theoretical substantiation and analysis of demographic aging trends in Russia in the 20th century. The second part analyzes the indicators of demographic aging in the period from 1970 to 2021 and calculates the forecast for the period from 2021 to 2070. In order to retrospectively analyze and forecast the development of the situation, we used Zbigniew Dlugosz’s approach to the analysis of demographic aging, which involves typologizing the population according to the ratio and dynamics of children and older people in its structure. The research methodology taken is not widely used in scientific works, but it allows us to analyze demographic aging at the country and regional level. This method was tested for countries and for Russia’s regions, trends and forecasts of demographic aging in the world and in Russia were determined by the possibility to classify the population to a certain theoretical type. The analysis of demographic aging of the population of continents, countries and regions was carried out according to the dynamics of young and elderly population, the Dlugosz Aging Index and theoretical types. Conclusions on the main trends in the dynamics of the population’s age structure are made.